NHL · Thursday, 12 November, (UTC+3)
Buffalo Sabres — Tampa Bay Lightning
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 12 November
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Close to a coin flip: Buffalo Sabres 48%, Tampa Bay Lightning 52% including overtime.
5.7 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (6.0).
Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 58%.
Why
- The teams are almost level on expected goals: 2.8 and 2.9.
Facts
- League table: Buffalo Sabres — No. 19, 17 pts; Tampa Bay Lightning — No. 8, 20 pts. A gap of 3 pts.
- Buffalo Sabres: 3 wins in a row.
- Last 5 meetings: Buffalo Sabres 3 wins, Tampa Bay Lightning 2.
- Days of rest before the match: Buffalo Sabres 12, Tampa Bay Lightning 8.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Buffalo Sabres — Tampa Bay Lightning | 2.8–2.9 | |
| Buffalo Sabres to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 48% | |
| Tampa Bay Lightning to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 52% | |
| Total over 5.5 (regulation) | 58% | |
| Total under 5.5 (regulation) | 42% |
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Form
- 31.10away · Los Angeles Kings3:2
- 30.10away · Anaheim Ducks7:6
- 28.10away · San Jose Sharks2:0
- 25.10away · Washington Capitals3:4 OT
- 22.10Philadelphia Flyers1:3
- 04.11Detroit Red Wings4:2
- 31.10away · Nashville Predators4:5 SO
- 30.10Winnipeg Jets6:4
- 25.10away · Utah Mammoth4:5 OT
- 24.10away · Colorado Avalanche3:6
Head to head
- 07.04.2026Buffalo Sabres — Tampa Bay Lightning4:2
- 09.03.2026Buffalo Sabres — Tampa Bay Lightning8:7
- 01.03.2026Tampa Bay Lightning — Buffalo Sabres2:6
- 04.02.2026Tampa Bay Lightning — Buffalo Sabres4:3 OT
- 14.04.2025Tampa Bay Lightning — Buffalo Sabres7:4
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7, Playoffs: top 3 in each division | New Jersey Devils | 15 | 10 | +9 | 20 |
| 8, Playoffs: top 3 in each division | Tampa Bay Lightning | 14 | 9 | +7 | 20 |
| 9, Playoffs: top 3 in each division | Utah Mammoth | 16 | 10 | +3 | 20 |
| 18, Playoffs: wild cards, 2 per conference | Nashville Predators | 15 | 6 | -2 | 17 |
| 19 | Buffalo Sabres | 14 | 7 | -6 | 17 |
| 20 | Washington Capitals | 14 | 8 | +1 | 16 |
NHL on the same day
- Calgary FlamesNew York Rangerspreliminary47532The model's most likely outcome: 224%Model's score: 1:45.1
- Edmonton OilersPhiladelphia Flyerspreliminary62381The model's most likely outcome: 123%Model's score: 4:15.2
- Vegas Golden KnightsUtah Mammothpreliminary53471The model's most likely outcome: 123%Model's score: 4:15.5
- Anaheim DucksNashville Predatorspreliminary61391The model's most likely outcome: 121%Model's score: 5:26.4
- San Jose SharksPittsburgh Penguinspreliminary42582The model's most likely outcome: 223%Model's score: 2:55.8
- Seattle KrakenCarolina Hurricanespreliminary30702The model's most likely outcome: 221%Model's score: 2:55.8
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 40% will not happen in roughly 60 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →