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VHL (All-Russian Hockey League) · Monday, 23 November, (UTC+3)

Gornyak — Kristall Saratov

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Model prediction for 23 November

Gornyak50%
Draw in regulation22%
Kristall Saratov28%
Model estimate at (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Gornyak are clear favourites: 63% to win including overtime and shootout.

4.9 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (4.7).

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 41%.

Why

  • Gornyak are more dangerous in attack: 2.8 expected goals against 2.1.

Facts

  • League table: Gornyak — No. 18, 20 pts; Kristall Saratov — No. 14, 23 pts. A gap of 3 pts.
  • Last 5 meetings: Gornyak 5 wins, Kristall Saratov 0.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Gornyak — Kristall Saratov2.8–2.1
Gornyak to win (incl. OT and shootout)63%
Kristall Saratov to win (incl. OT and shootout)37%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)41%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)59%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Totals incl. OT
  • Handicap Gornyak
  • Gornyak goals
  • Overtime chance
  • Full score grid
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Form

Gornyak

  • 31.10Dyn. Altay3:2
  • 29.10Metallurg Novokuznetsk3:4 SO
  • 27.10Krasnoyarsk0:3
  • 25.10HC Norilsk0:2
  • 18.10away · Kaluga3:1

Kristall Saratov

  • 03.11Olympia2:3
  • 25.10Tambov3:2
  • 23.10Buran Voronezh4:2
  • 19.10away · HC Yugra1:3
  • 17.10away · Rubin Tyumen2:1

Head to head

  • 02.03.2026Gornyak — Kristall Saratov6:2
  • 24.09.2025Kristall Saratov — Gornyak2:6
  • 19.02.2025Kristall Saratov — Gornyak2:3 OT
  • 02.10.2024Gornyak — Kristall Saratov4:2
  • 08.12.2023Gornyak — Kristall Saratov6:2

Full record: 6 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWOTLLGoals+/−Pts
13, PlayoffsToros Neftekamsk19103647–43+423
14, PlayoffsKristall Saratov18111647–54-723
15, PlayoffsTambov18102648–47+122
17Olympia221011158–61-321
18Gornyak1792642–39+320
19Dinamo St. Petersburg1883749–54-519

Season 2026/27 · 2 points for a win, 1 for an overtime or shootout loss

Full table

VHL on the same day

  • HC NorilskAKMpreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 223%Model's score: 1:24.5
  • CSK VVSDyn. Altaypreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 123%Model's score: 3:14.5
  • PermOrskpreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 123%Model's score: 3:14.2
  • SKA-VMF St. PetersburgHC Yugrapreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 225%Model's score: 1:23.7

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 50% will not happen in roughly 50 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →