VHL (All-Russian Hockey League) · Monday, 23 November, 17:00 (UTC+3)

Perm — Orsk

Model prediction for 23 November

Perm51%

Draw in regulation23%

Orsk26%

Model estimate at 13:45 (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Perm are clear favourites: 64% to win including overtime and shootout.

The model expects few goals: 4.2 in total, against a competition average of 4.7.

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 28%.

Why

Perm are more dangerous in attack: 2.4 expected goals against 1.8.

Facts

League table: Perm — No. 5, 28 pts; Orsk — No. 6, 28 pts.
Perm: 3 wins in a row.
Last 5 meetings: Perm 3 wins, Orsk 2.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Perm — Orsk		2.4–1.8
Perm to win (incl. OT and shootout)		64%
Orsk to win (incl. OT and shootout)		36%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)		28%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)		72%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

All totals
Totals incl. OT
Handicap Perm
Perm goals
Overtime chance
Full score grid

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Form

Perm

30.10HC Yugra3:2 SO
28.10Rubin Tyumen5:2
26.10Kurgan3:1
24.10Omskie Krylia2:3
19.10away · Dyn. Altay5:1

Orsk

03.11away · Rubin Tyumen4:3 SO
01.11away · Kurgan3:4 OT
30.10away · Omskie Krylia2:3 SO
25.10Dyn. Altay3:4 OT
23.10Metallurg Novokuznetsk2:1

Head to head

14.03.2026Perm — Orsk4:3 SO
04.09.2025Orsk — Perm2:4
23.12.2024Orsk — Perm4:2
20.11.2024Perm — Orsk1:2 OT
18.02.2024Perm — Orsk6:2

Full record: 6 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#	Team	P	W	OTL	L	Goals	+/−	Pts
4, Playoffs	AKM	21	12	5	4	61–48	+13	29
5, Playoffs	Perm	19	14	0	5	56–32	+24	28
6, Playoffs	Orsk	19	11	6	2	53–42	+11	28
7, Playoffs	Metallurg Novokuznetsk	21	12	3	6	46–32	+14	27

Season 2026/27 · 2 points for a win, 1 for an overtime or shootout loss

Full table

VHL on the same day

15:00
HC NorilskAKMpreliminary
5050
2The model's most likely outcome: 223%Model's score: 1:24.5
16:00
CSK VVSDyn. Altaypreliminary
5743
1The model's most likely outcome: 123%Model's score: 3:14.5
16:30
GornyakKristall Saratovpreliminary
6337
1The model's most likely outcome: 122%Model's score: 3:14.9
19:00
SKA-VMF St. PetersburgHC Yugrapreliminary
4753
2The model's most likely outcome: 225%Model's score: 1:23.7

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 51% will not happen in roughly 49 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →