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VHL (All-Russian Hockey League) · Monday, 23 November, (UTC+3)

HC Norilsk — AKM

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Model prediction for 23 November

HC Norilsk39%
Draw in regulation23%
AKM38%
Model estimate at (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Close to a coin flip: HC Norilsk 50%, AKM 50% including overtime.

4.5 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (4.7).

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 34%.

Why

  • The teams are almost level on expected goals: 2.3 and 2.3.

Facts

  • League table: HC Norilsk — No. 2, 32 pts; AKM — No. 4, 29 pts. A gap of 3 pts.
  • HC Norilsk: 5 wins in a row.
  • Last 5 meetings: HC Norilsk 2 wins, AKM 3.

Probabilities

Expected goals: HC Norilsk — AKM2.3–2.3
HC Norilsk to win (incl. OT and shootout)50%
AKM to win (incl. OT and shootout)50%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)34%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)66%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Totals incl. OT
  • Handicap HC Norilsk
  • HC Norilsk goals
  • Overtime chance
  • Full score grid
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Form

HC Norilsk

  • 03.11Dinamo St. Petersburg3:2 SO
  • 01.11Zvezda Moscow5:2
  • 30.10Khimik5:4
  • 25.10away · Gornyak2:0
  • 23.10away · Chelmet Chelyabinsk2:1

AKM

  • 02.11Bars3:0
  • 26.10away · SKA-VMF St. Petersburg0:5
  • 24.10away · Dinamo St. Petersburg1:2 SO
  • 22.10away · Zvezda Moscow3:4 OT
  • 20.10away · Khimik3:2 SO

Head to head

  • 12.01.2026HC Norilsk — AKM6:2
  • 11.11.2025AKM — HC Norilsk2:1
  • 29.01.2025HC Norilsk — AKM3:2 OT
  • 23.10.2024AKM — HC Norilsk9:0
  • 25.01.2024AKM — HC Norilsk3:2

Full record: 6 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWOTLLGoals+/−Pts
1, PlayoffsOmskie Krylia20170354–26+2834
2, PlayoffsHC Norilsk22152557–47+1032
3, PlayoffsAlmetyevsk19150453–34+1930
4, PlayoffsAKM21125461–48+1329
5, PlayoffsPerm19140556–32+2428

Season 2026/27 · 2 points for a win, 1 for an overtime or shootout loss

Full table

VHL on the same day

  • CSK VVSDyn. Altaypreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 123%Model's score: 3:14.5
  • GornyakKristall Saratovpreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 122%Model's score: 3:14.9
  • PermOrskpreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 123%Model's score: 3:14.2
  • SKA-VMF St. PetersburgHC Yugrapreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 225%Model's score: 1:23.7

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 39% will not happen in roughly 61 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →