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Swiss National League (hockey) · Friday, 20 November, (UTC+3)

Lugano — Ajoie

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Model prediction for 20 November

Lugano57%
Draw in regulation20%
Ajoie23%
Model estimate at (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Lugano are clear favourites: 69% to win including overtime and shootout.

5.4 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (5.4).

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 51%.

Why

  • Lugano are more dangerous in attack: 3.2 expected goals against 2.2.

Facts

  • League table: Lugano — No. 12, 22 pts; Ajoie — No. 9, 25 pts. A gap of 3 pts.
  • Last 5 meetings: Lugano 4 wins, Ajoie 1.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Lugano — Ajoie3.2–2.2
Lugano to win (incl. OT and shootout)69%
Ajoie to win (incl. OT and shootout)31%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)51%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)49%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Totals incl. OT
  • Handicap Lugano
  • Lugano goals
  • Overtime chance
  • Full score grid
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Form

Lugano

  • 31.10away · Ambri-Piotta3:4
  • 29.10Lausanne4:0
  • 27.10away · Zug2:7
  • 25.10away · Bern1:2 OT
  • 23.10EHC Kloten2:5

Ajoie

  • 31.10away · Rapperswil-Jona4:2
  • 30.10Bern1:4
  • 27.10away · EHC Kloten4:7
  • 24.10away · Ambri-Piotta0:3
  • 23.10Servette5:0

Head to head

  • 04.10.2026Ajoie — Lugano5:4
  • 27.02.2026Ajoie — Lugano0:1
  • 22.12.2025Lugano — Ajoie6:1
  • 12.10.2025Ajoie — Lugano1:2
  • 19.09.2025Lugano — Ajoie2:0

Full record: 19 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWOTWOTLLGoals+/−Pts
8, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsLausanne207211059–69-1026
9, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsAjoie19542858–64-625
10, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsDavos19622945–55-1024
11Biel18702957–60-323
12Lugano18612956–62-622
13, Relegation play-offRapperswil-Jona194231050–69-1919

Season 2026/27 · 3 points for a regulation win, 2 for an overtime or shootout win, 1 for an overtime or shootout loss

Full table

National League on the same day

  • BernEHC Klotenpreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 122%Model's score: 3:14.6
  • FribourgRapperswil-Jonapreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 121%Model's score: 4:25.0
  • Langnau TigersAmbri-Piottapreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 121%Model's score: 3:25.4
  • ZugServettepreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 122%Model's score: 3:14.7

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 57% will not happen in roughly 43 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →