AHL (American Hockey League) · Sunday, 22 November, (UTC+3)
Ontario Reign — Coachella Valley Firebirds
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 22 November
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Close to a coin flip: Ontario Reign 50%, Coachella Valley Firebirds 50% including overtime.
5.5 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (5.8).
Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 52%.
Why
- The teams are almost level on expected goals: 2.8 and 2.7.
Facts
- League table: Ontario Reign — No. 24, 10 pts; Coachella Valley Firebirds — No. 22, 11 pts. A gap of 1 pt.
- Ontario Reign: 4 defeats in a row.
- Last 5 meetings: Ontario Reign 2 wins, Coachella Valley Firebirds 3.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Ontario Reign — Coachella Valley Firebirds | 2.8–2.8 | |
| Ontario Reign to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 50% | |
| Coachella Valley Firebirds to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 50% | |
| Total over 5.5 (regulation) | 52% | |
| Total under 5.5 (regulation) | 48% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Totals incl. OT
- Handicap Ontario Reign
- Ontario Reign goals
- Overtime chance
- Full score grid
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Form
- 01.11Tucson Roadrunners2:3
- 31.10Tucson Roadrunners4:5
- 29.10away · Henderson Silver Knights1:4
- 25.10away · Texas Stars2:5
- 24.10away · Texas Stars5:3
- 31.10Henderson Silver Knights5:1
- 29.10Tucson Roadrunners1:5
- 24.10San Jose Barracuda2:5
- 22.10away · San Diego Gulls3:2
- 19.10away · Abbotsford Canucks4:5 SO
Head to head
- 12.10.2026Coachella Valley Firebirds — Ontario Reign2:3 OT
- 04.10.2026Ontario Reign — Coachella Valley Firebirds2:6
- 03.10.2026Coachella Valley Firebirds — Ontario Reign5:6 OT
- 10.05.2026Ontario Reign — Coachella Valley Firebirds2:3 OT
- 08.05.2026Coachella Valley Firebirds — Ontario Reign6:2
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts | P% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Chicago Wolves | 11 | 5 | -12 | 11 | .500 |
| 22 | Coachella Valley Firebirds | 11 | 4 | -6 | 11 | .500 |
| 23 | Providence Bruins | 11 | 5 | +8 | 10 | .455 |
| 24 | Ontario Reign | 11 | 5 | -9 | 10 | .455 |
| 25 | Lehigh Valley Phantoms | 10 | 4 | -14 | 9 | .450 |
AHL on the same day
- Hartford Wolf PackMilwaukee Admiralspreliminary48522The model's most likely outcome: 222%Model's score: 2:34.9
- Wilkes-Barre/ScrantonRochester Americanspreliminary56441The model's most likely outcome: 121%Model's score: 4:25.8
- Cleveland MonstersUtica Cometspreliminary47532The model's most likely outcome: 222%Model's score: 2:35.3
- Syracuse CrunchBelleville Senatorspreliminary62381The model's most likely outcome: 121%Model's score: 4:25.6
- Lehigh Valley PhantomsHershey Bearspreliminary41592The model's most likely outcome: 221%Model's score: 2:45.6
- Providence BruinsCharlotte Checkerspreliminary51491The model's most likely outcome: 122%Model's score: 3:25.3
- Abbotsford CanucksTucson Roadrunnerspreliminary46542The model's most likely outcome: 222%Model's score: 2:35.3
- Texas StarsSan Jose Barracudapreliminary42582The model's most likely outcome: 220%Model's score: 2:46.3
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 40% will not happen in roughly 60 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →