NHL · Wednesday, 11 November, (UTC+3)
Ottawa Senators — Washington Capitals
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 11 November
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Close to a coin flip: Ottawa Senators 53%, Washington Capitals 47% including overtime.
The model expects few goals: 5.6 in total, against a competition average of 6.0.
Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 55%.
Why
- The teams are almost level on expected goals: 2.9 and 2.7.
Facts
- League table: Ottawa Senators — No. 12, 19 pts; Washington Capitals — No. 20, 16 pts. A gap of 3 pts.
- Last 5 meetings: Ottawa Senators 3 wins, Washington Capitals 2.
- Days of rest before the match: Ottawa Senators 9, Washington Capitals 7.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Ottawa Senators — Washington Capitals | 2.9–2.7 | |
| Ottawa Senators to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 53% | |
| Washington Capitals to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 47% | |
| Total over 5.5 (regulation) | 55% | |
| Total under 5.5 (regulation) | 45% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Totals incl. OT
- Handicap Ottawa Senators
- Ottawa Senators goals
- Overtime chance
- Full score grid
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Form
- 02.11away · Anaheim Ducks3:6
- 31.10away · San Jose Sharks5:1
- 30.10away · Los Angeles Kings5:6 OT
- 28.10away · Vegas Golden Knights1:4
- 25.10New York Rangers7:4
- 04.11Dallas Stars5:6
- 01.11Minnesota Wild1:5
- 30.10away · Nashville Predators4:3
- 29.10Philadelphia Flyers5:2
- 25.10Buffalo Sabres4:3 OT
Head to head
- 19.03.2026Washington Capitals — Ottawa Senators4:1
- 01.01.2026Ottawa Senators — Washington Capitals4:3
- 26.10.2025Washington Capitals — Ottawa Senators1:7
- 04.03.2025Washington Capitals — Ottawa Senators5:4 SO
- 31.01.2025Ottawa Senators — Washington Capitals5:4 OT
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11, Playoffs: wild cards, 2 per conference | Dallas Stars | 15 | 9 | +8 | 19 |
| 12, Playoffs: wild cards, 2 per conference | Ottawa Senators | 16 | 9 | +1 | 19 |
| 13, Playoffs: wild cards, 2 per conference | Toronto Maple Leafs | 17 | 8 | +6 | 18 |
| 19 | Buffalo Sabres | 14 | 7 | -6 | 17 |
| 20 | Washington Capitals | 14 | 8 | +1 | 16 |
| 21 | New York Islanders | 14 | 7 | +1 | 16 |
NHL on the same day
- Montreal CanadiensMinnesota Wildpreliminary45552The model's most likely outcome: 223%Model's score: 1:45.4
- Toronto Maple LeafsColorado Avalanchepreliminary39612The model's most likely outcome: 222%Model's score: 2:56.4
- Winnipeg JetsNew Jersey Devilspreliminary42582The model's most likely outcome: 223%Model's score: 1:45.6
- Columbus Blue JacketsFlorida Pantherspreliminary48522The model's most likely outcome: 224%Model's score: 1:45.2
- St. Louis BluesDetroit Red Wingspreliminary52481The model's most likely outcome: 124%Model's score: 4:15.3
- Los Angeles KingsNashville Predatorspreliminary54461The model's most likely outcome: 123%Model's score: 4:15.4
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 41% will not happen in roughly 59 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →