NHL · Wednesday, 11 November, (UTC+3)
Toronto Maple Leafs — Colorado Avalanche
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 11 November
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Colorado Avalanche are favourites: 61% to win including overtime and shootout.
The model expects plenty of goals: 6.4 in total, against a competition average of 6.0.
Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 68%.
Why
- Colorado Avalanche are more dangerous in attack: 3.5 expected goals against 2.9.
Facts
- League table: Toronto Maple Leafs — No. 13, 18 pts; Colorado Avalanche — No. 10, 19 pts. A gap of 1 pt.
- Last 5 meetings: Toronto Maple Leafs 3 wins, Colorado Avalanche 2.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Toronto Maple Leafs — Colorado Avalanche | 2.9–3.5 | |
| Toronto Maple Leafs to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 39% | |
| Colorado Avalanche to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 61% | |
| Total over 5.5 (regulation) | 68% | |
| Total under 5.5 (regulation) | 32% |
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Form
- 04.11Utah Mammoth2:3
- 01.11away · Vancouver Canucks4:2
- 29.10away · Seattle Kraken4:5
- 27.10away · Calgary Flames2:5
- 25.10away · Edmonton Oilers7:2
- 04.11away · Columbus Blue Jackets2:7
- 03.11away · Chicago Blackhawks5:2
- 01.11Calgary Flames5:2
- 29.10New Jersey Devils5:2
- 26.10away · Nashville Predators2:6
Head to head
- 11.10.2026Colorado Avalanche — Toronto Maple Leafs3:6
- 25.01.2026Toronto Maple Leafs — Colorado Avalanche1:4
- 13.01.2026Colorado Avalanche — Toronto Maple Leafs3:4 OT
- 20.03.2025Toronto Maple Leafs — Colorado Avalanche2:1
- 09.03.2025Colorado Avalanche — Toronto Maple Leafs7:4
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9, Playoffs: top 3 in each division | Utah Mammoth | 16 | 10 | +3 | 20 |
| 10, Playoffs: top 3 in each division | Colorado Avalanche | 16 | 9 | +13 | 19 |
| 11, Playoffs: wild cards, 2 per conference | Dallas Stars | 15 | 9 | +8 | 19 |
| 12, Playoffs: wild cards, 2 per conference | Ottawa Senators | 16 | 9 | +1 | 19 |
| 13, Playoffs: wild cards, 2 per conference | Toronto Maple Leafs | 17 | 8 | +6 | 18 |
| 14 | Florida Panthers | 15 | 8 | +3 | 18 |
NHL on the same day
- Montreal CanadiensMinnesota Wildpreliminary45552The model's most likely outcome: 223%Model's score: 1:45.4
- Ottawa SenatorsWashington Capitalspreliminary53471The model's most likely outcome: 123%Model's score: 4:15.6
- Winnipeg JetsNew Jersey Devilspreliminary42582The model's most likely outcome: 223%Model's score: 1:45.6
- Columbus Blue JacketsFlorida Pantherspreliminary48522The model's most likely outcome: 224%Model's score: 1:45.2
- St. Louis BluesDetroit Red Wingspreliminary52481The model's most likely outcome: 124%Model's score: 4:15.3
- Los Angeles KingsNashville Predatorspreliminary54461The model's most likely outcome: 123%Model's score: 4:15.4
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 48% will not happen in roughly 52 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →