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Tennis: ATP, Paris, hard · Tuesday, 3 November, (UTC+3)

Nakashima B. — Berrettini M.

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Model prediction and result

1:2Missed
Nakashima B.60%
Berrettini M.40%
Model estimate at (UTC+3), the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 1:2: the model's most likely outcome, Nakashima B. to win (60%), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 60% fails in about 40 matches out of 100 on average.

Nakashima B. are slightly stronger: 60% against 40%.

Over 24.5 games — 52%.

Why

  • Rating on hard: Nakashima B. 1685, Berrettini M. 1676.

Probabilities

Games over 24.552%
Games under 24.548%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • Games handicap
  • Sets handicap
  • First set
  • Nakashima B. games
  • Berrettini M. games
  • Score in sets
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Form

Nakashima B.

  • 28.10Griekspoor T.1:2
  • 23.10Cobolli F.1:2
  • 22.10Jacquet K.2:0
  • 20.10Medjedovic H.2:1
  • 11.10Bublik A.1:2

Berrettini M.

  • 30.10De Minaur A.0:2
  • 29.10Cobolli F.0:0
  • 26.10Etcheverry T. M.2:0
  • 20.10Jacquet K.0:2
  • 09.10Nakashima B.0:2

Head to head

  • 09.10.2026Berrettini M. — Nakashima B.0:2

Full record: 2 meetings →

Next match

  • Berrettini M.Humbert U.4 November · ATP · Paris
    2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:223.5

ATP on the same day

  • Halys Q.Fery A.
    1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 2:0. Model's score: 2:0, exactly right.24.5
  • Rinderknech A.Cerundolo F.
    2The most likely outcome came true: 2Final score 1:1. Model's score: 0:2.22.5
  • Rublev A.Etcheverry T. M.
    1The most likely outcome did not happen: 1Final score 1:2. Model's score: 2:0.21.5
  • Vallejo D.Tien L.
    2The most likely outcome came true: 2Final score 1:2. Model's score: 0:2.22.5
  • Borges N.Kouame M.
    1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 2:0. Model's score: 2:0, exactly right.22.5
  • Djokovic N.Vacherot V.
    1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 2:1. Model's score: 2:0.22.5
  • Paul T.Rune H.
    1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 2:0. Model's score: 2:0, exactly right.22.5
  • Michelsen A.Lehecka J.
    2The most likely outcome did not happen: 2Final score 2:1. Model's score: 0:2.22.5

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 60% will not happen in roughly 40 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →