Liga Nacional de Básquet (Argentina) · Wednesday, 4 November, 00:00 (UTC+3)

Atenas — Gimnasia

Model prediction for 4 November

Atenas43%

Gimnasia57%

Model estimate at 05:39 (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Gimnasia are slightly stronger: 57% against 43%.

The model expects a score around 79:81 — 160 points in total.

Over 158.5 points (incl. overtime) — 51%.

Why

Team strength against the league average: Atenas −2.4, Gimnasia +3.5 points in regulation.

Facts

League table: Atenas — No. 7, 2–1; Gimnasia — No. 6, 4–2.
Last 5 meetings: Atenas 2 wins, Gimnasia 3.

Probabilities

Expected points (incl. overtime): Atenas — Gimnasia		78.7–80.9
Total over 158.5 (incl. OT)		51%
Total under 158.5 (incl. OT)		49%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the regulation 1X2, the teams’ offence and defence, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

All handicaps
All totals
Atenas points
Gimnasia points
Regulation 1X2
Offence and defence strength

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Form

Atenas

13.10Ferro91:86
08.10away · Olimpico91:87
06.10away · Quimsa77:83
13.05away · Argentino77:88
10.05away · Argentino53:61

Gimnasia

13.10away · Argentino87:82
11.10away · Racing de Chivilcoy78:72
09.10away · San Lorenzo73:89
05.10La Union92:86
01.10away · Penarol57:62

Head to head

19.03.2026Gimnasia — Atenas90:83
25.10.2025Atenas — Gimnasia62:64
08.05.2025Atenas — Gimnasia78:74
13.12.2024Gimnasia — Atenas66:70
13.01.2023Gimnasia — Atenas121:89

Full record: 11 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#	Team	P	W	L	PCT	GB
5, Play-in round for the quarter-finals	Racing de Chivilcoy	4	3	1	.750	0.5
6, Play-in round for the quarter-finals	Gimnasia	6	4	2	.667	0.5
7, Play-in round for the quarter-finals	Atenas	3	2	1	.667	1
8, Play-in round for the quarter-finals	Instituto de Cordoba	3	2	1	.667	1

Season 2026/27 · by win percentage, ties by head-to-head record, then the points difference in those games and overall

Full table

Liga Nacional on the same day

00:00
La UnionArgentinopreliminary
8416
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: —165.6
00:00
Instituto de CordobaRacing de Chivilcoypreliminary
7327
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: —154.0

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 57% will not happen in roughly 43 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →