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Over 2.5 goals predictions

4 November 2026 · a pick is 60%+

Today’s and tomorrow’s football, ranked by the chance of over 2.5 goals — computed by the Forepitch statistical model from each team’s expected goals. A pick here means 60% or more. On the matches played since 28 September, such picks came true 364 times out of 538 (68%). No prediction is sure: even at 60%, about 4 in 10 still miss. In the backtest (53,863 matches), the model called the right side of 2.5 goals — over or under — in 58% of matches. The full accuracy record →

Today, 4 November

3 at 60% or more — in bold.

23:00 · Champions LeagueSlavia Prague — ArsenalOver 2.5: 65%
22:45 · ChampionshipCardiff City — West Ham UnitedOver 2.5: 64%
23:00 · Champions LeagueViking — Sabah FKOver 2.5: 61%
20:45 · Champions LeagueAEK Athens — Real MadridOver 2.5: 59%
23:00 · Champions LeagueBorussia Dortmund — Real BetisOver 2.5: 59%
23:00 · Champions LeagueFC Porto — NapoliOver 2.5: 56%
18:30 · Europa LeagueRennes — OlympiacosOver 2.5: 55%
20:45 · Champions LeagueFenerbahçe — LiverpoolOver 2.5: 55%
23:00 · Champions LeaguePSV Eindhoven — Club BruggeOver 2.5: 55%
23:00 · Champions LeagueRB Leipzig — Manchester CityOver 2.5: 55%

Tomorrow, 5 November

10 at 60% or more — in bold.

23:00 · Conference LeagueFC København — Iberia 1999Over 2.5: 72%
23:00 · Conference LeagueLugano — FK Kauno ŽalgirisOver 2.5: 71%
20:45 · Conference LeagueAtalanta — Kairat AlmatyOver 2.5: 70%
20:45 · Europa LeagueMilan — FerencvárosOver 2.5: 69%
23:00 · Conference LeaguePanathinaikos — CSKA SofiaOver 2.5: 65%
23:00 · Europa LeagueBenfica — Lech PoznańOver 2.5: 65%
23:00 · Conference LeagueFC Twente — Pafos FCOver 2.5: 64%
20:45 · Europa LeagueSparta Prague — AFC BournemouthOver 2.5: 61%
23:00 · Conference LeagueMonaco — NordsjællandOver 2.5: 61%
23:00 · Europa LeagueSunderland — Dinamo ZagrebOver 2.5: 60%

How yesterday’s picks did

1 of 2 came true.

AllsvenskanSirius — Halmstads BK 2:0Over 2.5: 65% ✗
Champions LeagueBarcelona — Aston Villa 3:0Over 2.5: 62% ✓

Questions

Are these sure predictions?

No. There are no sure predictions in football, and anyone selling “100% sure tips” is not being honest. These are probabilities: picks at 60% or more came true 68% of the time, and every result is checked in the open.

How does the model calculate this probability?

The model estimates each team’s expected goals (attack and defence strength, form, home advantage, the league’s scoring level) and turns them into a distribution of scores. The chance of over 2.5 is the share of scores with three goals or more.

When is the list updated?

Several times a day: the model recalculates with fresh data. After the match the result is marked automatically — ✓ or ✗ next to the pick.

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