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Most likely predictions

4 November 2026 · a pick is 70%+

Today’s and tomorrow’s football, ranked by the chance of the favourite winning in 90 minutes — computed by the Forepitch statistical model from each team’s expected goals. A pick here means 70% or more. On the matches played since 29 September, such picks came true 186 times out of 243 (77%). No prediction is sure: even at 70%, about 3 in 10 still miss. In the backtest (3,329 matches over three-plus seasons), a favourite at 70% or more won 79% of the time. The full accuracy record →

Today, 4 November

2 at 70% or more — in bold.

23:00 · Champions LeagueSlavia Prague — ArsenalArsenal to win: 75%
18:00 · Nigeria NPFLEnugu Rangers — Bendel InsuranceEnugu Rangers to win: 71%
23:00 · Champions LeagueViking — Sabah FKViking to win: 66%
20:45 · Champions LeagueAEK Athens — Real MadridReal Madrid to win: 63%
23:00 · Champions LeagueBorussia Dortmund — Real BetisBorussia Dortmund to win: 63%
13:00 · Turkish CupFethiyespor — EyüpsporEyüpspor to win: 53%
23:00 · Champions LeagueFC Porto — NapoliFC Porto to win: 53%
23:00 · Champions LeagueRB Leipzig — Manchester CityManchester City to win: 49%
22:45 · ChampionshipWrexham — MiddlesbroughMiddlesbrough to win: 47%
23:00 · Champions LeaguePSV Eindhoven — Club BruggePSV Eindhoven to win: 46%

Tomorrow, 5 November

7 at 70% or more — in bold.

23:00 · Conference LeagueFC København — Iberia 1999FC København to win: 85%
20:45 · Conference LeagueAtalanta — Kairat AlmatyAtalanta to win: 83%
23:00 · Conference LeagueLugano — FK Kauno ŽalgirisLugano to win: 83%
20:45 · Europa LeagueMilan — FerencvárosMilan to win: 80%
23:00 · Conference LeaguePanathinaikos — CSKA SofiaPanathinaikos to win: 75%
23:00 · Europa LeagueBenfica — Lech PoznańBenfica to win: 75%
23:00 · Conference LeagueFC Twente — Pafos FCFC Twente to win: 73%
23:00 · Conference LeagueMonaco — NordsjællandMonaco to win: 68%
20:45 · Europa LeagueSparta Prague — AFC BournemouthAFC Bournemouth to win: 67%
23:00 · Europa LeagueSunderland — Dinamo ZagrebSunderland to win: 66%

How yesterday’s picks did

1 of 1 came true.

AllsvenskanSirius — Halmstads BK 2:0Sirius to win: 77% ✓

Questions

Are these sure predictions?

No. There are no sure predictions in football, and anyone selling “100% sure tips” is not being honest. These are probabilities: picks at 70% or more came true 77% of the time, and every result is checked in the open.

How does the model calculate this probability?

It is the favourite’s win in 90 minutes, from the model’s 1X2 probabilities. A draw never makes this list: its chance almost never goes above 35%.

When is the list updated?

Several times a day: the model recalculates with fresh data. After the match the result is marked automatically — ✓ or ✗ next to the pick.

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