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Liga Nacional de Básquet (Argentina) · Thursday, 8 October, MSK · Estadio Luis Conde

Boca Juniors — Obera TC

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Model prediction and result

96:73Came true
Boca Juniors66%
Obera TC34%
Model estimate at MSK, the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 96:73: the model's most likely outcome, Boca Juniors to win (66% incl. overtime), came true.

Boca Juniors are clear favourites: 66% against 34% for the opponent.

The model expects a score around 81:77 — 158 points in total.

Over 157.5 points (incl. overtime) — 50%.

Why

  • Team strength against the league average: Boca Juniors +3.5, Obera TC +2.3 points in regulation.

Probabilities

Expected points (incl. overtime): Boca Juniors — Obera TC81.5–76.6
Total over 157.5 (incl. OT)50%
Total under 157.5 (incl. OT)50%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the regulation 1X2, the teams’ offence and defence, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All handicaps
  • All totals
  • Boca Juniors points
  • Obera TC points
  • Regulation 1X2
  • Offence and defence strength
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Form

Boca Juniors

  • 01.06Quimsa83:94
  • 30.05Quimsa99:92
  • 26.05away · Quimsa78:91
  • 23.05away · Quimsa76:88
  • 15.05Obera TC86:78

Obera TC

  • 15.05away · Boca Juniors78:86
  • 12.05Boca Juniors80:102
  • 09.05Boca Juniors66:70
  • 20.04Atenas78:82
  • 17.04Penarol84:81

Head to head

  • 15.05.2026Boca Juniors — Obera TC86:78
  • 12.05.2026Obera TC — Boca Juniors80:102
  • 09.05.2026Obera TC — Boca Juniors66:70
  • 26.03.2026Obera TC — Boca Juniors78:62
  • 17.12.2025Boca Juniors — Obera TC70:80

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWLPCTGB
13Olimpico312.3332
14Boca Juniors312.3332
15Ferro413.2502.5
17, Relegation play-offSan Martin303.0003
18, Relegation play-offObera TC202.0002.5

Season 2026/27 · by win percentage, ties by head-to-head record, then the points difference in those games and overall

Full table

Next matches

  • LanusObera TC10 October · Liga Nacional
    2The most likely outcome did not happen: 2Final score 67:58. Model's score: —.164.9
  • QuimsaBoca Juniors11 October · Liga Nacional
    1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 105:96. Model's score: —.164.4

Liga Nacional on the same day

  • OlimpicoAtenas
    1The most likely outcome did not happen: 1Final score 87:91. Model's score: —.156.4

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 66% will not happen in roughly 34 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →