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NBB (Novo Basquete Brasil) · Sunday, 22 November, (UTC+3)

Brasilia — Pato

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Model prediction for 22 November

Brasilia87%
Pato13%
Model estimate at (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Brasilia are clear favourites: 87% against 13% for the opponent.

The model expects a score around 83:68 — 151 point in total.

Over 150.5 points (incl. overtime) — 50%.

Why

  • Team strength against the league average: Brasilia +3.9, Pato −7.3 points in regulation.

Facts

  • League table: Brasilia — No. 7, 3–2; Pato — No. 16, 1–3.
  • Last 5 meetings: Brasilia 3 wins, Pato 2.

Probabilities

Expected points (incl. overtime): Brasilia — Pato82.5–68.1
Total over 150.5 (incl. OT)50%
Total under 150.5 (incl. OT)50%

231 more model lines in Premium

All totals and handicaps, team totals, the regulation 1X2, the teams’ offence and defence, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All handicaps
  • All totals
  • Brasilia points
  • Pato points
  • Regulation 1X2
  • Offence and defence strength
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Form

Brasilia

  • 02.11Botafogo76:77
  • 30.10away · Minas61:100
  • 28.10away · Cruzeiro89:80
  • 24.10Paulistano91:73
  • 23.10Corinthians Paulista104:92

Pato

  • 30.10away · Cruzeiro68:76
  • 28.10away · Minas65:86
  • 25.10Botafogo89:88
  • 22.10Paulistano74:80
  • 18.04away · Paulistano71:92

Head to head

  • 03.04.2026Pato — Brasilia58:67
  • 24.12.2025Brasilia — Pato84:69
  • 15.03.2025Pato — Brasilia98:80
  • 17.12.2024Brasilia — Pato98:94
  • 06.01.2024Brasilia — Pato65:77

Full record: 14 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWLPCTGB
6, PlayoffsUnifacisa431.7501.5
7, PlayoffsBrasilia532.6002
8, PlayoffsCruzeiro532.6002
15, PlayoffsSao Jose413.2503.5
16, PlayoffsPato413.2503.5
17Caxias do Sul505.0005

Season 2026/27 · by win percentage, ties by head-to-head record, then the points difference in those games and overall

Full table

NBB on the same day

  • PinheirosMinaspreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: —161.1
  • CearenseFlamengopreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: —161.2
  • Sao JoseCorinthians Paulistapreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: —164.5
  • MogiPaulistanopreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: —148.0

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 87% will not happen in roughly 13 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →