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NBB (Novo Basquete Brasil) · Sunday, 22 November, (UTC+3)

Cearense — Flamengo

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Model prediction for 22 November

Cearense5%
Flamengo95%
Model estimate at (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Flamengo are clear favourites: 95% against 5% for the opponent.

The model expects a score around 70:91 — 161 point in total.

Over 160.5 points (incl. overtime) — 51%.

Why

  • Team strength against the league average: Cearense −17.4, Flamengo +6.3 points in regulation.

Facts

  • League table: Cearense — No. 18, 0–3; Flamengo — No. 4, 3–1.
  • Cearense: 5 defeats in a row; Flamengo: 3 wins in a row.
  • Last 5 meetings: Cearense 0 wins, Flamengo 5.

Probabilities

Expected points (incl. overtime): Cearense — Flamengo70.4–90.8
Total over 160.5 (incl. OT)51%
Total under 160.5 (incl. OT)49%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the regulation 1X2, the teams’ offence and defence, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All handicaps
  • All totals
  • Cearense points
  • Flamengo points
  • Regulation 1X2
  • Offence and defence strength
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Form

Cearense

  • 03.11away · Sao Jose53:96
  • 23.10Pinheiros63:98
  • 21.10Osasco69:93
  • 17.04away · Cruzeiro77:86
  • 15.04away · Minas56:87

Flamengo

  • 01.11Uniao Corinthians83:65
  • 31.10Caxias do Sul77:59
  • 21.10Botafogo81:71
  • 18.10Bauru81:82
  • 16.05away · Brasilia69:72

Head to head

  • 10.01.2026Cearense — Flamengo81:88
  • 24.10.2025Flamengo — Cearense102:73
  • 14.02.2025Flamengo — Cearense84:79
  • 30.10.2024Cearense — Flamengo56:78
  • 10.05.2024Cearense — Flamengo68:83

Full record: 17 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWLPCTGB
3, PlayoffsMogi431.7501.5
4, PlayoffsFlamengo431.7501.5
5, PlayoffsPaulistano431.7501.5
17Caxias do Sul505.0005
18, RelegationCearense303.0004

Season 2026/27 · by win percentage, ties by head-to-head record, then the points difference in those games and overall

Full table

NBB on the same day

  • PinheirosMinaspreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: —161.1
  • Sao JoseCorinthians Paulistapreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: —164.5
  • BrasiliaPatopreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: —150.6
  • MogiPaulistanopreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: —148.0

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 95% will not happen in roughly 5 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →