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NBB (Novo Basquete Brasil) · Sunday, 22 November, (UTC+3)

Mogi — Paulistano

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Model prediction for 22 November

Mogi67%
Paulistano33%
Model estimate at (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Mogi are clear favourites: 67% against 33% for the opponent.

The model expects a score around 77:71 — 148 points in total.

Over 147.5 points (incl. overtime) — 50%.

Why

  • Team strength against the league average: Mogi +4.7, Paulistano +2.5 points in regulation.

Facts

  • League table: Mogi — No. 3, 3–1; Paulistano — No. 5, 3–1.
  • Last 5 meetings: Mogi 3 wins, Paulistano 2.

Probabilities

Expected points (incl. overtime): Mogi — Paulistano76.7–71.3
Total over 147.5 (incl. OT)50%
Total under 147.5 (incl. OT)50%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the regulation 1X2, the teams’ offence and defence, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All handicaps
  • All totals
  • Mogi points
  • Paulistano points
  • Regulation 1X2
  • Offence and defence strength
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Form

Mogi

  • 27.10Unifacisa78:70
  • 24.10away · Bauru79:61
  • 22.10away · Franca74:90
  • 17.10Corinthians Paulista84:73
  • 16.05away · Franca77:78

Paulistano

  • 31.10Bauru83:75
  • 29.10Franca65:62
  • 24.10away · Brasilia73:91
  • 22.10away · Pato80:74
  • 10.05Pinheiros74:84

Head to head

  • 16.04.2026Mogi — Paulistano84:70
  • 27.12.2025Paulistano — Mogi81:66
  • 11.01.2025Paulistano — Mogi76:63
  • 13.10.2024Mogi — Paulistano72:67
  • 10.04.2024Mogi — Paulistano64:61

Full record: 12 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWLPCTGB
2, PlayoffsPinheiros541.8001
3, PlayoffsMogi431.7501.5
4, PlayoffsFlamengo431.7501.5
5, PlayoffsPaulistano431.7501.5
6, PlayoffsUnifacisa431.7501.5

Season 2026/27 · by win percentage, ties by head-to-head record, then the points difference in those games and overall

Full table

NBB on the same day

  • PinheirosMinaspreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: —161.1
  • CearenseFlamengopreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: —161.2
  • Sao JoseCorinthians Paulistapreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: —164.5
  • BrasiliaPatopreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: —150.6

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 67% will not happen in roughly 33 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →