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NBB (Novo Basquete Brasil) · Saturday, 24 October, MSK

Brasilia — Paulistano

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Model prediction for 24 October

Brasilia67%
Paulistano33%
Model estimate at MSK

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Brasilia are clear favourites: 67% against 33% for the opponent.

The model expects a score around 79:74 — 153 points in total.

Over 152.5 points (incl. overtime) — 50%.

Why

  • Team strength against the league average: Brasilia +5.9, Paulistano +3.3 points in regulation.

Facts

  • Last 5 meetings: Brasilia 1 win, Paulistano 4.

Probabilities

Expected points (incl. overtime): Brasilia — Paulistano79.3–73.7
Total over 152.5 (incl. OT)50%
Total under 152.5 (incl. OT)50%

223 more model lines in Premium

All totals and handicaps, team totals, the regulation 1X2, the teams’ offence and defence, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All handicaps
  • All totals
  • Brasilia points
  • Paulistano points
  • Regulation 1X2
  • Offence and defence strength
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Form

Brasilia

  • 29.05away · Franca66:68
  • 27.05away · Franca71:69
  • 24.05Franca74:91
  • 22.05Franca67:50
  • 19.05away · Franca67:76

Paulistano

  • 10.05Pinheiros74:84
  • 08.05Pinheiros68:76
  • 05.05away · Pinheiros92:101
  • 30.04Bauru71:62
  • 27.04away · Bauru75:88

Head to head

  • 20.01.2026Paulistano — Brasilia83:81 OT
  • 31.10.2025Brasilia — Paulistano71:54
  • 18.04.2025Paulistano — Brasilia81:69
  • 19.12.2024Brasilia — Paulistano87:102
  • 31.03.2024Paulistano — Brasilia95:50

Full record: 14 meetings →

NBB on the same day

  • BauruMogipreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: —152.2

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 67% will not happen in roughly 33 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →