NBB (Novo Basquete Brasil) · Wednesday, 21 October, MSK

Cearense — Osasco

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Model prediction for 21 October

Cearense59%
Osasco41%
Model estimate at MSK

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Cearense are slightly stronger: 59% against 41%.

The model expects a score around 85:82 — 167 points in total.

Over 166.5 points (incl. overtime) — 50%.

Why

  • Team strength against the league average: Cearense −10.3, Osasco −10.3 points in regulation.

Probabilities

Expected points (incl. overtime): Cearense — Osasco85.0–82.0
Total over 166.5 (incl. OT)50%
Total under 166.5 (incl. OT)50%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the regulation 1X2, the teams’ offence and defence, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All handicaps
  • All totals
  • Cearense points
  • Osasco points
  • Regulation 1X2
  • Offence and defence strength
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Form

Cearense

  • 17.04away · Cruzeiro77:86
  • 15.04away · Minas56:87
  • 07.04Caxias do Sul83:107
  • 04.04Uniao Corinthians94:93
  • 22.03away · Franca71:116

Osasco

  • 18.04away · Mogi76:73
  • 11.04Pato77:68
  • 08.04away · Corinthians Paulista96:111
  • 04.04Unifacisa65:101
  • 22.03Minas66:78

Head to head

  • 18.03.2026Osasco — Cearense90:89 OT
  • 10.12.2025Cearense — Osasco89:82

NBB on the same day

  • 2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: —160.0
  • FlamengoBotafogopreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: —165.9

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 59% will not happen in roughly 41 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →