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Liga Nacional de Básquet (Argentina) · Saturday, 10 October, MSK

Lanus — Obera TC

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Model prediction and result

67:58Missed
Lanus34%
Obera TC66%
Model estimate at MSK, the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 67:58: the model's most likely outcome, Obera TC to win (66% incl. overtime), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 66% fails in about 34 matches out of 100 on average.

Obera TC are clear favourites: 66% against 34% for the opponent.

The model expects a score around 80:85 — 165 points in total.

Over 164.5 points (incl. overtime) — 49%.

Why

  • Team strength against the league average: Lanus −8.0, Obera TC +0.5 points in regulation.

Probabilities

Expected points (incl. overtime): Lanus — Obera TC80.0–84.9
Total over 164.5 (incl. OT)49%
Total under 164.5 (incl. OT)51%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the regulation 1X2, the teams’ offence and defence, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All handicaps
  • All totals
  • Lanus points
  • Obera TC points
  • Regulation 1X2
  • Offence and defence strength
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Form

Lanus

  • 29.09Gimnasia74:92

Obera TC

  • 08.10away · Boca Juniors73:96
  • 15.05away · Boca Juniors78:86
  • 12.05Boca Juniors80:102
  • 09.05Boca Juniors66:70
  • 20.04Atenas78:82

Head to head

No previous meetings in the data.

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWLPCTGB
10, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsRacing de Chivilcoy211.5001.5
11, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsLanus211.5001.5
12, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsPlatense312.3332
17, Relegation play-offSan Martin303.0003
18, Relegation play-offObera TC202.0002.5

Season 2026/27 · by win percentage, ties by head-to-head record, then the points difference in those games and overall

Full table

Next matches

  • Obera TCRacing de Chivilcoy14 October · Liga Nacional
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: —161.3
  • LanusPenarol15 October · Liga Nacional
    2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: —158.7

Liga Nacional on the same day

  • Instituto de CordobaFerro
    1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 97:94 in overtime. Model's score: —.158.4

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 66% will not happen in roughly 34 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →