NBB (Novo Basquete Brasil) · Thursday, 5 November, (UTC+3)

Mogi — Cearense

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Model prediction for 5 November

Mogi89%
Cearense11%
Model estimate at (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Mogi are clear favourites: 89% against 11% for the opponent.

The model expects a score around 85:69 — 154 points in total.

Over 153.5 points (incl. overtime) — 51%.

Why

  • Team strength against the league average: Mogi +2.3, Cearense −10.3 points in regulation.

Facts

  • Last 5 meetings: Mogi 3 wins, Cearense 2.

Probabilities

Expected points (incl. overtime): Mogi — Cearense84.9–69.3
Total over 153.5 (incl. OT)51%
Total under 153.5 (incl. OT)49%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the regulation 1X2, the teams’ offence and defence, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All handicaps
  • All totals
  • Mogi points
  • Cearense points
  • Regulation 1X2
  • Offence and defence strength
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Form

Mogi

  • 16.05away · Franca77:78
  • 14.05away · Franca102:90
  • 10.05Franca70:88
  • 09.05Franca65:97
  • 06.05away · Franca95:93

Cearense

  • 17.04away · Cruzeiro77:86
  • 15.04away · Minas56:87
  • 07.04Caxias do Sul83:107
  • 04.04Uniao Corinthians94:93
  • 22.03away · Franca71:116

Head to head

  • 10.02.2026Mogi — Cearense88:76
  • 10.11.2025Cearense — Mogi76:80
  • 03.04.2025Mogi — Cearense75:63
  • 06.12.2024Cearense — Mogi76:69
  • 25.01.2024Cearense — Mogi93:75

Full record: 12 meetings →

NBB on the same day

  • 1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: —159.3
  • BrasiliaFlamengopreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: —160.8

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 89% will not happen in roughly 11 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →