NBB (Novo Basquete Brasil) · Saturday, 17 October, MSK

Mogi — Corinthians Paulista

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Model prediction for 17 October

Mogi53%
Corinthians Paulista47%
Model estimate at MSK

In short

Evenly matched: Mogi 53%, Corinthians Paulista 47%.

The model expects a score around 79:78 — 158 points in total.

Over 157.5 points (incl. overtime) — 50%.

Why

  • Team strength against the league average: Mogi +2.3, Corinthians Paulista +4.2 points in regulation.

Probabilities

Expected points (incl. overtime): Mogi — Corinthians Paulista79.5–78.4
Total over 157.5 (incl. OT)50%
Total under 157.5 (incl. OT)50%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the regulation 1X2, the teams’ offence and defence, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All handicaps
  • All totals
  • Mogi points
  • Corinthians Paulista points
  • Regulation 1X2
  • Offence and defence strength
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Form

Mogi

  • 16.05away · Franca77:78
  • 14.05away · Franca102:90
  • 10.05Franca70:88
  • 09.05Franca65:97
  • 06.05away · Franca95:93

Corinthians Paulista

  • 27.05away · Pinheiros76:88
  • 24.05Pinheiros81:82
  • 21.05Pinheiros98:84
  • 19.05away · Pinheiros65:95
  • 13.05away · Minas92:81

Head to head

  • 19.02.2026Corinthians Paulista — Mogi82:75
  • 23.11.2025Mogi — Corinthians Paulista67:70
  • 15.03.2025Corinthians Paulista — Mogi93:73
  • 18.12.2024Mogi — Corinthians Paulista70:72
  • 19.01.2024Mogi — Corinthians Paulista70:77

Full record: 12 meetings →

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 53% will not happen in roughly 47 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →