NBA (National Basketball Association) · Friday, 23 October, MSK

Oklahoma City Thunder — Denver Nuggets

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Model prediction for 23 October

Oklahoma City Thunder66%
Denver Nuggets34%
Model estimate at MSK

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Oklahoma City Thunder are clear favourites: 66% against 34% for the opponent.

The model expects a score around 120:114 — 234 points in total.

Over 233.5 points (incl. overtime) — 50%.

Why

  • Pace: Oklahoma City Thunder 99.4, Denver Nuggets 102.1 possessions per 48 minutes.

Probabilities

Expected points (incl. overtime): Oklahoma City Thunder — Denver Nuggets119.7–114.2
Total over 233.5 (incl. OT)50%
Total under 233.5 (incl. OT)50%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the regulation 1X2, who may miss the game, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

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  • Regulation 1X2
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Form

Oklahoma City Thunder

  • 31.05San Antonio Spurs103:111
  • 29.05away · San Antonio Spurs91:118
  • 27.05San Antonio Spurs127:114
  • 25.05away · San Antonio Spurs82:103
  • 23.05away · San Antonio Spurs123:108

Denver Nuggets

  • 01.05away · Minnesota Timberwolves98:110
  • 28.04Minnesota Timberwolves125:113
  • 26.04away · Minnesota Timberwolves96:112
  • 24.04away · Minnesota Timberwolves96:113
  • 21.04Minnesota Timberwolves114:119

Head to head

  • 11.04.2026Denver Nuggets — Oklahoma City Thunder127:107
  • 10.03.2026Oklahoma City Thunder — Denver Nuggets129:126
  • 28.02.2026Oklahoma City Thunder — Denver Nuggets127:121 OT
  • 02.02.2026Denver Nuggets — Oklahoma City Thunder111:121
  • 18.05.2025Oklahoma City Thunder — Denver Nuggets125:93

Full record: 33 meetings →

NBA on the same day

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 66% will not happen in roughly 34 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →