Liga Nacional de Básquet (Argentina) · Thursday, 8 October, 04:00 MSK · Estadio Vicente Rosales

Olimpico — Atenas

Model prediction and result

87:91Missed

Olimpico66%

Atenas34%

Model estimate at 23:38 MSK, the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 87:91: the model's most likely outcome, Olimpico to win (66% incl. overtime), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 66% fails in about 34 matches out of 100 on average.

Olimpico are clear favourites: 66% against 34% for the opponent.

The model expects a score around 81:76 — 156 points in total.

Over 155.5 points (incl. overtime) — 51%.

Why

Team strength against the league average: Olimpico −2.6, Atenas −3.7 points in regulation.

Probabilities

Expected points (incl. overtime): Olimpico — Atenas		80.6–75.8
Total over 155.5 (incl. OT)		51%
Total under 155.5 (incl. OT)		49%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the regulation 1X2, the teams’ offence and defence, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

All handicaps
All totals
Olimpico points
Atenas points
Regulation 1X2
Offence and defence strength

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Form

Olimpico

02.10Platense74:82
13.04away · San Martin67:78
11.04away · Regatas75:99
06.04La Union87:78
29.03Quimsa86:81

Atenas

06.10away · Quimsa77:83
13.05away · Argentino77:88
10.05away · Argentino53:61
07.05Argentino78:84
05.05Argentino96:93

Head to head

11.01.2026Atenas — Olimpico89:75
17.10.2025Olimpico — Atenas84:87 OT
03.05.2025Olimpico — Atenas81:84
08.11.2024Atenas — Olimpico75:64
09.12.2022Olimpico — Atenas87:66

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#	Team	P	W	L	PCT	GB
5, Play-in round for the quarter-finals	Gimnasia	6	4	2	.667	0.5
6, Play-in round for the quarter-finals	Atenas	3	2	1	.667	1
7, Play-in round for the quarter-finals	Instituto de Cordoba	3	2	1	.667	1
12, Play-in round for the quarter-finals	Platense	3	1	2	.333	2
13	Olimpico	3	1	2	.333	2
14	Boca Juniors	3	1	2	.333	2

Season 2026/27 · by win percentage, ties by head-to-head record, then the points difference in those games and overall

Full table

Next matches

03:00
AtenasFerro13 October · Liga Nacional
5149
1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 91:86. Model's score: —.165.6
04:00
OlimpicoBoca Juniors13 October · Liga Nacional
3565
2The most likely outcome did not happen: 2Final score 93:80. Model's score: —.170.7

Liga Nacional on the same day

03:05
Boca JuniorsObera TC
6634
1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 96:73. Model's score: —.158.1

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 66% will not happen in roughly 34 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →