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Liga ACB (Spanish basketball league) · Sunday, 22 November, (UTC+3)

Real Madrid — Joventut Badalona

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Model prediction for 22 November

Real Madrid85%
Joventut Badalona15%
Model estimate at (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Real Madrid are clear favourites: 85% against 15% for the opponent.

The model expects a score around 99:86 — 185 points in total.

Over 184.5 points (incl. overtime) — 50%.

Why

  • Team strength against the league average: Real Madrid +10.5, Joventut Badalona +1.9 points in regulation.

Facts

  • League table: Real Madrid — No. 1, 6–0; Joventut Badalona — No. 14, 2–4.
  • Real Madrid: 5 wins in a row.
  • Last 5 meetings: Real Madrid 3 wins, Joventut Badalona 2.

Probabilities

Expected points (incl. overtime): Real Madrid — Joventut Badalona98.6–86.5
Total over 184.5 (incl. OT)50%
Total under 184.5 (incl. OT)50%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the regulation 1X2, the teams’ offence and defence, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All handicaps
  • All totals
  • Real Madrid points
  • Joventut Badalona points
  • Regulation 1X2
  • Offence and defence strength
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Form

Real Madrid

  • 01.11San Pablo Burgos90:79
  • 29.10Fenerbahce95:76
  • 27.10away · Baskonia104:86
  • 25.10away · Forca Lleida122:86
  • 22.10away · Maccabi Tel Aviv113:99

Joventut Badalona

  • 01.11Bilbao78:81
  • 25.10away · Basquet Girona87:101
  • 18.10Barcelona113:89
  • 14.10MoraBanc Andorra96:75
  • 11.10away · Baskonia73:93

Head to head

  • 17.05.2026Real Madrid — Joventut Badalona81:89
  • 09.11.2025Joventut Badalona — Real Madrid75:80
  • 02.02.2025Real Madrid — Joventut Badalona86:73
  • 01.12.2024Joventut Badalona — Real Madrid80:76
  • 14.04.2024Real Madrid — Joventut Badalona95:92

Full record: 18 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWLPCTGB
1, PlayoffsReal Madrid6601.000—
2, PlayoffsBarcelona642.6672
13San Pablo Burgos624.3334
14Joventut Badalona624.3334
15Leyma Coruna624.3334

Season 2026/27 · by win percentage, ties by head-to-head record, then the points difference in those games and overall

Full table

Liga ACB on the same day

  • BilbaoBaskoniapreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: —179.3
  • Obradoiro CABBasquet Gironapreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: —182.4
  • Leyma CorunaForca Lleidapreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: —197.2
  • ValenciaBreoganpreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: —199.4
  • TenerifeBarcelonapreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: —182.7

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 85% will not happen in roughly 15 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →