Liga ACB (Spanish basketball league) · Sunday, 22 November, 19:00 (UTC+3)

Valencia — Breogan

Model prediction for 22 November

Valencia89%

Breogan11%

Model estimate at 23:02 (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Valencia are clear favourites: 89% against 11% for the opponent.

The model expects a score around 107:92 — 199 points in total.

Over 198.5 points (incl. overtime) — 51%.

Why

Team strength against the league average: Valencia +10.8, Breogan −0.3 points in regulation.

Facts

League table: Valencia — No. 3, 4–2; Breogan — No. 5, 4–2.
Last 5 meetings: Valencia 5 wins, Breogan 0.

Probabilities

Expected points (incl. overtime): Valencia — Breogan		107.0–92.3
Total over 198.5 (incl. OT)		51%
Total under 198.5 (incl. OT)		49%

231 more model lines in Premium

All totals and handicaps, team totals, the regulation 1X2, the teams’ offence and defence, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

All handicaps
All totals
Valencia points
Breogan points
Regulation 1X2
Offence and defence strength

Get Premiumfrom $5.99 a month

Form

Valencia

01.11away · MoraBanc Andorra111:79
30.10away · Barcelona94:98
27.10Fenerbahce86:78
25.10Baskonia84:75
23.10away · Paris104:93

Breogan

01.11away · Obradoiro CAB110:90
25.10Unicaja90:103
17.10away · MoraBanc Andorra102:108
10.10Basquet Girona115:92
03.10away · Manresa101:95

Head to head

05.04.2026Valencia — Breogan105:88
12.10.2025Breogan — Valencia90:113
30.05.2025Valencia — Breogan108:61
13.10.2024Breogan — Valencia75:87
14.01.2024Valencia — Breogan88:80

Full record: 10 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#	Team	P	W	L	PCT	GB
2, Playoffs	Barcelona	6	4	2	.667	2
3, Playoffs	Valencia	6	4	2	.667	2
4, Playoffs	Tenerife	6	4	2	.667	2
5, Playoffs	Breogan	6	4	2	.667	2
6, Playoffs	Bilbao	6	4	2	.667	2

Season 2026/27 · by win percentage, ties by head-to-head record, then the points difference in those games and overall

Full table

Liga ACB on the same day

14:00
BilbaoBaskoniapreliminary
3367
2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: —179.3
14:00
Obradoiro CABBasquet Gironapreliminary
6634
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: —182.4
14:30
Leyma CorunaForca Lleidapreliminary
6040
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: —197.2
20:00
TenerifeBarcelonapreliminary
5941
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: —182.7
21:00
Real MadridJoventut Badalonapreliminary
8515
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: —185.0

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 89% will not happen in roughly 11 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →