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EuroLeague (basketball) · Wednesday, 4 November, (UTC+3)

Real Madrid — Panathinaikos

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Model prediction for 4 November

Real Madrid49%
Panathinaikos51%
Model estimate at (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Evenly matched: Real Madrid 49%, Panathinaikos 51%.

The model expects a score around 87:87 — 174 points in total.

Over 173.5 points (incl. overtime) — 50%.

Why

  • Team strength against the league average: Real Madrid +2.7, Panathinaikos +6.4 points in regulation.

Facts

  • League table: Real Madrid — No. 10, 3–3; Panathinaikos — No. 1, 5–0.
  • Real Madrid: 5 wins in a row; Panathinaikos: 5 wins in a row.
  • Last 5 meetings: Real Madrid 1 win, Panathinaikos 4.

Probabilities

Expected points (incl. overtime): Real Madrid — Panathinaikos87.0–87.3
Total over 173.5 (incl. OT)50%
Total under 173.5 (incl. OT)50%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the regulation 1X2, the teams’ offence and defence, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All handicaps
  • All totals
  • Real Madrid points
  • Panathinaikos points
  • Regulation 1X2
  • Offence and defence strength
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Form

Real Madrid

  • 15.10Lyon-Villeurbanne111:92
  • 13.10away · Olimpia Milano98:89
  • 11.10Manresa120:83
  • 08.10Partizan Mozzart Bet86:76
  • 04.10away · Obradoiro CAB114:107

Panathinaikos

  • 13.10away · Partizan Mozzart Bet72:55
  • 08.10Fenerbahce92:74
  • 02.10Maccabi Tel Aviv90:67
  • 30.09Lyon-Villeurbanne102:79
  • 24.09Paris91:72

Head to head

  • 03.02.2026Panathinaikos — Real Madrid82:81
  • 13.11.2025Real Madrid — Panathinaikos77:87
  • 06.03.2025Panathinaikos — Real Madrid85:70
  • 17.10.2024Real Madrid — Panathinaikos90:86
  • 26.05.2024Real Madrid — Panathinaikos80:95

Full record: 15 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWLPCTGB
1, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finalsPanathinaikos5501.000—
2, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finalsFenerbahce651.8330.5
9, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsCrvena Zvezda Meridianbet532.6002
10, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsReal Madrid633.5002.5
11Partizan Mozzart Bet633.5002.5

Season 2026/27 · by win percentage, ties by head-to-head record, then the points difference in those games and overall

Full table

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 51% will not happen in roughly 49 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →