Liga Nacional de Básquet (Argentina) · Friday, 9 October, MSK · Polideportivo Roberto Pando
San Lorenzo — Gimnasia
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In short
Final score 89:73: the model's most likely outcome, Gimnasia to win (64% incl. overtime), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 64% fails in about 36 matches out of 100 on average.
Gimnasia are clear favourites: 64% against 36% for the opponent.
The model expects a score around 75:79 — 154 points in total.
Over 153.5 points (incl. overtime) — 50%.
Why
- Team strength against the league average: San Lorenzo −3.0, Gimnasia +4.9 points in regulation.
Probabilities
| Expected points (incl. overtime): San Lorenzo — Gimnasia | 75.0–79.2 | |
| Total over 153.5 (incl. OT) | 50% | |
| Total under 153.5 (incl. OT) | 50% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the regulation 1X2, the teams’ offence and defence, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All handicaps
- All totals
- San Lorenzo points
- Gimnasia points
- Regulation 1X2
- Offence and defence strength
Form
- 18.04away · Obras Sanitarias70:76
- 15.04away · Argentino70:80
- 13.04away · Racing de Chivilcoy66:80
- 04.04Boca Juniors77:83
- 31.03Gimnasia73:81
- 05.10La Union92:86
- 01.10away · Penarol57:62
- 29.09away · Lanus92:74
- 21.06Quimsa68:56
- 18.06away · Quimsa60:88
Head to head
- 31.03.2026San Lorenzo — Gimnasia73:81
- 07.11.2025Gimnasia — San Lorenzo84:63
- 30.04.2025Gimnasia — San Lorenzo92:81
- 25.10.2024San Lorenzo — Gimnasia78:74
- 16.03.2024San Lorenzo — Gimnasia73:72
Table
| # | Team | W | L | PCT | GB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finals | Quimsa | 3 | 0 | 1.000 | — |
| 2, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finals | San Lorenzo | 1 | 0 | 1.000 | 1 |
| 3, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finals | Regatas | 1 | 0 | 1.000 | 1 |
| 4, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finals | Penarol | 1 | 0 | 1.000 | 1 |
| 5, Play-in round for the quarter-finals | Gimnasia | 4 | 2 | .667 | 0.5 |
| 6, Play-in round for the quarter-finals | Atenas | 2 | 1 | .667 | 1 |
Next matches
- Racing de ChivilcoyGimnasia11 October · Liga Nacional41592The most likely outcome came true: 272:78Final score 72:78. Model's score: —.160.1
- San LorenzoPenarol17 October · Liga Nacional57421The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: —162.3
Liga Nacional on the same day
- 59411The most likely outcome came true: 1126:123OTFinal score 126:123 in overtime. Model's score: —.155.3
- 69311The most likely outcome did not happen: 192:97Final score 92:97. Model's score: —.171.3
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 64% will not happen in roughly 36 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →