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LNBP (Mexican basketball league) · Monday, 12 October, MSK · Domo de la Feria

Abejas — Santos

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Model prediction and result

82:106Missed
Abejas62%
Santos38%
Model estimate at MSK, the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 82:106: the model's most likely outcome, Abejas to win (62% incl. overtime), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 62% fails in about 38 matches out of 100 on average.

Abejas are clear favourites: 62% against 38% for the opponent.

The model expects a score around 90:86 — 176 points in total.

Over 175.5 points (incl. overtime) — 50%.

Why

  • Team strength against the league average: Abejas −4.2, Santos −6.6 points in regulation.

Probabilities

Expected points (incl. overtime): Abejas — Santos90.0–86.0
Total over 175.5 (incl. OT)50%
Total under 175.5 (incl. OT)50%

223 more model lines in Premium

All totals and handicaps, team totals, the regulation 1X2, the teams’ offence and defence, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All handicaps
  • All totals
  • Abejas points
  • Santos points
  • Regulation 1X2
  • Offence and defence strength
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Form

Abejas

  • 08.10away · Correcaminos95:89
  • 07.10away · Correcaminos98:76
  • 03.10away · Mineros81:74
  • 02.10away · Mineros78:90
  • 27.09Santos92:78

Santos

  • 08.10away · Mineros93:82
  • 07.10away · Mineros75:96
  • 03.10Freseros108:87
  • 02.10Freseros96:81
  • 27.09away · Abejas78:92

Head to head

  • 27.09.2026Abejas — Santos92:78
  • 26.09.2026Abejas — Santos86:87
  • 09.08.2025Santos — Abejas90:75
  • 08.08.2025Santos — Abejas87:91
  • 17.10.2024Abejas — Santos105:98

Full record: 22 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026
#TeamPWLPCTGB
7, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsMineros281513.5366
8, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsAbejas281216.4299
9, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsSantos281117.39310
10, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsDiablos Rojos281117.39310

Season 2026 · by win percentage, ties by head-to-head record, then the points difference in those games and overall

Full table

Next match

  • AbejasSantos13 October · LNBP
    1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 84:74. Model's score: —.176.7

LNBP on the same day

  • DoradosGambusinos
    1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 98:83. Model's score: —.166.4
  • Lobos PlateadosFreseros
    1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 105:86. Model's score: —.171.5
  • MinerosDiablos Rojos
    1The most likely outcome did not happen: 1Final score 92:98. Model's score: —.168.3

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 62% will not happen in roughly 38 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →