LNBP (Mexican basketball league) · Tuesday, 13 October, MSK · Domo de la Feria
Abejas — Santos
☆ Save matchModel prediction and result
84:74Came true
In short
Final score 84:74: the model's most likely outcome, Abejas to win (58% incl. overtime), came true.
Abejas are slightly stronger: 58% against 42%.
The model expects a score around 90:87 — 177 points in total.
Over 175.5 points (incl. overtime) — 51%.
Why
- Team strength against the league average: Abejas −5.0, Santos −5.9 points in regulation.
Probabilities
| Expected points (incl. overtime): Abejas — Santos | 89.6–87.1 | |
| Total over 175.5 (incl. OT) | 51% | |
| Total under 175.5 (incl. OT) | 49% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the regulation 1X2, the teams’ offence and defence, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All handicaps
- All totals
- Abejas points
- Santos points
- Regulation 1X2
- Offence and defence strength
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Form
- 12.10Santos82:106
- 08.10away · Correcaminos95:89
- 07.10away · Correcaminos98:76
- 03.10away · Mineros81:74
- 02.10away · Mineros78:90
- 12.10away · Abejas106:82
- 08.10away · Mineros93:82
- 07.10away · Mineros75:96
- 03.10Freseros108:87
- 02.10Freseros96:81
Head to head
- 12.10.2026Abejas — Santos82:106
- 27.09.2026Abejas — Santos92:78
- 26.09.2026Abejas — Santos86:87
- 09.08.2025Santos — Abejas90:75
- 08.08.2025Santos — Abejas87:91
Table
| # | Team | W | L | PCT | GB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7, Play-in round for the quarter-finals | Mineros | 15 | 13 | .536 | 6 |
| 8, Play-in round for the quarter-finals | Abejas | 12 | 16 | .429 | 9 |
| 9, Play-in round for the quarter-finals | Santos | 11 | 17 | .393 | 10 |
| 10, Play-in round for the quarter-finals | Diablos Rojos | 11 | 17 | .393 | 10 |
Next match
- SantosAbejas16 October · LNBP51491The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: —175.8
LNBP on the same day
- 70301The most likely outcome came true: 188:87Final score 88:87. Model's score: —.167.1
- 81191The most likely outcome came true: 175:63Final score 75:63. Model's score: —.172.5
- 57431The most likely outcome came true: 197:86Final score 97:86. Model's score: —.169.5
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 58% will not happen in roughly 42 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →