NBB (Novo Basquete Brasil) · Wednesday, 21 October, MSK

Caxias do Sul — Minas

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Model prediction for 21 October

Caxias do Sul35%
Minas65%
Model estimate at MSK

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Minas are clear favourites: 65% against 35% for the opponent.

The model expects a score around 77:82 — 160 points in total.

Over 159.5 points (incl. overtime) — 50%.

Why

  • Team strength against the league average: Caxias do Sul −3.0, Minas +5.0 points in regulation.

Probabilities

Expected points (incl. overtime): Caxias do Sul — Minas77.5–82.5
Total over 159.5 (incl. OT)50%
Total under 159.5 (incl. OT)50%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the regulation 1X2, the teams’ offence and defence, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All handicaps
  • All totals
  • Caxias do Sul points
  • Minas points
  • Regulation 1X2
  • Offence and defence strength
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Form

Caxias do Sul

  • 01.05away · Brasilia70:71
  • 28.04Brasilia66:63
  • 25.04Brasilia70:78
  • 23.04away · Brasilia64:73
  • 18.04Corinthians Paulista79:92

Minas

  • 13.05Corinthians Paulista81:92
  • 10.05away · Corinthians Paulista97:103
  • 08.05away · Corinthians Paulista97:91
  • 05.05Corinthians Paulista90:100
  • 30.04Cruzeiro103:93

Head to head

  • 20.03.2026Minas — Caxias do Sul81:75
  • 04.12.2025Caxias do Sul — Minas72:88
  • 27.03.2025Minas — Caxias do Sul88:70
  • 16.11.2024Caxias do Sul — Minas58:78
  • 11.04.2024Caxias do Sul — Minas88:99

Full record: 12 meetings →

NBB on the same day

  • CearenseOsascopreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: —167.0
  • FlamengoBotafogopreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: —165.9

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 65% will not happen in roughly 35 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →