UEFA Europa League, round 3 · Thursday, 22 October, MSK
Ararat Armenia — AZ Alkmaar
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 22 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
AZ Alkmaar are clear favourites: 52% against 24% for the opponent, draw 25%.
2.9 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.7).
Over 2.5 goals — 54%, both teams to score — 56%.
Why
- By the strength ratings AZ Alkmaar are about 0.7 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Ararat Armenia — AZ Alkmaar What is xG? | 1.1–1.7 | |
| Ararat Armenia not to lose | 48% | |
| AZ Alkmaar not to lose | 76% | |
| No draw | 75% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 56% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 44% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 54% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 46% |
183 more model lines in Premium
All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Ararat Armenia
- Ararat Armenia goals
- AZ Alkmaar goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
Form
- 10.10away · Feyenoord0:2
- 20.09Telstar1:0
- 16.09away · Sunderland0:1
- 11.09Willem II1:1
- 06.09away · SC Heerenveen3:2
Head to head
No previous meetings in the data.
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24, Knockout play-off for the round of 16 | Jagiellonia Białystok | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 |
| 25 | AZ Alkmaar | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 |
| 26 | Levski Sofia | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 |
| 31 | NK Celje | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 |
| 32 | Ararat Armenia | 1 | 0 | -3 | 0 |
| 33 | Marseille | 1 | 0 | -3 | 0 |
Europa League on the same day
- JuventusRennespreliminary6919121The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:03.1
- FerencvárosTorreensepreliminary5923181The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.9
- Union St.GilloiseHapoel Beer Shevapreliminary801471The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:03.5
- Dinamo ZagrebNEC Nijmegenpreliminary4826271The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.8
- Sturm GrazMarseillepreliminary3927351The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.8
- Lech PoznańSunderlandpreliminary5923181The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:03.0
- OFI CreteBayer Leverkusenpreliminary1420662The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:23.1
- OlympiacosSparta Praguepreliminary741691The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:03.3
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 52% will not happen in roughly 48 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →