UEFA Europa League, round 3 · Thursday, 22 October, MSK
Lech Poznań — Sunderland
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 22 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Lech Poznań are clear favourites: 59% against 18% for the opponent, draw 23%.
2.9 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.7).
Over 2.5 goals — 56%, both teams to score — 54%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Lech Poznań are about 0.9 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Lech Poznań — Sunderland What is xG? | 2.0–1.0 | |
| Lech Poznań not to lose | 82% | |
| Sunderland not to lose | 41% | |
| No draw | 77% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 54% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 46% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 56% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 44% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Lech Poznań
- Lech Poznań goals
- Sunderland goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
Form
- 10.10away · Śląsk Wrocław4:1
- 20.09Radomiak Radom5:1
- 17.09away · Crystal Palace0:4
- 12.09away · Górnik Zabrze1:2
- 06.09Raków Częstochowa1:0
- 10.10Brighton & Hove Albion0:2
- 20.09away · Manchester City3:5
- 16.09AZ Alkmaar1:0
- 12.09Arsenal0:2
- 08.09Hull City1:0
Head to head
No previous meetings in the data.
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15, Knockout play-off for the round of 16 | Salzburg | 1 | 1 | +1 | 3 |
| 16, Knockout play-off for the round of 16 | Sunderland | 1 | 1 | +1 | 3 |
| 17, Knockout play-off for the round of 16 | Dinamo Zagreb | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 34 | Viktoria Plzeň | 1 | 0 | -3 | 0 |
| 35 | Lech Poznań | 1 | 0 | -4 | 0 |
| 36 | NEC Nijmegen | 1 | 0 | -5 | 0 |
Europa League on the same day
- JuventusRennespreliminary6919121The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:03.1
- FerencvárosTorreensepreliminary5923181The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.9
- Union St.GilloiseHapoel Beer Shevapreliminary801471The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:03.5
- Dinamo ZagrebNEC Nijmegenpreliminary4826271The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.8
- Sturm GrazMarseillepreliminary3927351The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.8
- OFI CreteBayer Leverkusenpreliminary1420662The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:23.1
- Ararat ArmeniaAZ Alkmaarpreliminary2425522The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.9
- OlympiacosSparta Praguepreliminary741691The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:03.3
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 59% will not happen in roughly 41 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →