UEFA Europa League, round 3 · Thursday, 22 October, MSK
OFI Crete — Bayer Leverkusen
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 22 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Bayer Leverkusen are clear favourites: 66% against 14% for the opponent, draw 20%.
The model expects plenty of goals: 3.1 in total, against a competition average of 2.7.
Over 2.5 goals — 59%, both teams to score — 53%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Bayer Leverkusen are about 1.2 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: OFI Crete — Bayer Leverkusen What is xG? | 0.9–2.2 | |
| OFI Crete not to lose | 34% | |
| Bayer Leverkusen not to lose | 86% | |
| No draw | 80% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 53% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 47% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 59% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 41% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap OFI Crete
- OFI Crete goals
- Bayer Leverkusen goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
Form
- 10.10away · AEK Athens0:3
- 20.09Asteras Tripolis2:2
- 17.09Hoffenheim2:0
- 12.09away · Olympiacos1:0
- 06.09Kifisia FC2:0
- 10.10away · Mainz 054:3
- 20.09RB Leipzig2:0
- 16.09NK Celje2:0
- 12.09away · Augsburg2:2
- 05.09Union Berlin4:0
Head to head
No previous meetings in the data.
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6, Straight to the round of 16 | Ferencváros | 1 | 1 | +2 | 3 |
| 7, Straight to the round of 16 | Bayer Leverkusen | 1 | 1 | +2 | 3 |
| 8, Straight to the round of 16 | Benfica | 1 | 1 | +2 | 3 |
| 9, Knockout play-off for the round of 16 | OFI Crete | 1 | 1 | +2 | 3 |
| 10, Knockout play-off for the round of 16 | AFC Bournemouth | 1 | 1 | +1 | 3 |
Europa League on the same day
- JuventusRennespreliminary6919121The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:03.1
- FerencvárosTorreensepreliminary5923181The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.9
- Union St.GilloiseHapoel Beer Shevapreliminary801471The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:03.5
- Dinamo ZagrebNEC Nijmegenpreliminary4826271The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.8
- Sturm GrazMarseillepreliminary3927351The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.8
- Lech PoznańSunderlandpreliminary5923181The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:03.0
- Ararat ArmeniaAZ Alkmaarpreliminary2425522The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.9
- OlympiacosSparta Praguepreliminary741691The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:03.3
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 66% will not happen in roughly 34 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →