UEFA Europa League, round 3 · Thursday, 22 October, MSK
Union St.Gilloise — Hapoel Beer Sheva
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 22 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Union St.Gilloise are clear favourites: 80% against 7% for the opponent, draw 14%.
The model expects plenty of goals: 3.5 in total, against a competition average of 2.7.
Over 2.5 goals — 67%, both teams to score — 48%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Union St.Gilloise are about 1.1 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Union St.Gilloise — Hapoel Beer Sheva What is xG? | 2.8–0.7 | |
| Union St.Gilloise not to lose | 93% | |
| Hapoel Beer Sheva not to lose | 20% | |
| No draw | 86% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 48% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 52% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 67% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 33% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Union St.Gilloise
- Union St.Gilloise goals
- Hapoel Beer Sheva goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
Form
- 11.10OH Leuven1:1
- 20.09away · Royal Antwerp2:0
- 17.09away · Viktoria Plzeň3:0
- 12.09Lommel5:0
- 05.09away · Sporting Charleroi3:2
- 16.09Dinamo Zagreb0:0
- 03.11Austria Wien4:0
- 27.10away · Villarreal2:2
- 13.10Lech Poznań1:1
- 06.10away · Lech Poznań0:0
Head to head
No previous meetings in the data.
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4, Straight to the round of 16 | Sparta Prague | 1 | 1 | +3 | 3 |
| 5, Straight to the round of 16 | Union St.Gilloise | 1 | 1 | +3 | 3 |
| 6, Straight to the round of 16 | Ferencváros | 1 | 1 | +2 | 3 |
| 18, Knockout play-off for the round of 16 | Rennes | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 19, Knockout play-off for the round of 16 | Hapoel Beer Sheva | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 20, Knockout play-off for the round of 16 | Sturm Graz | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Europa League on the same day
- JuventusRennespreliminary6919121The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:03.1
- FerencvárosTorreensepreliminary5923181The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.9
- Dinamo ZagrebNEC Nijmegenpreliminary4826271The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.8
- Sturm GrazMarseillepreliminary3927351The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.8
- Lech PoznańSunderlandpreliminary5923181The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:03.0
- OFI CreteBayer Leverkusenpreliminary1420662The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:23.1
- Ararat ArmeniaAZ Alkmaarpreliminary2425522The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.9
- OlympiacosSparta Praguepreliminary741691The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:03.3
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 80% will not happen in roughly 20 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →