UEFA Europa League, round 3 · Thursday, 22 October, MSK
Olympiacos — Sparta Prague
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 22 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Olympiacos are clear favourites: 74% against 9% for the opponent, draw 16%.
The model expects plenty of goals: 3.3 in total, against a competition average of 2.7.
Over 2.5 goals — 63%, both teams to score — 50%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Olympiacos are about 1.3 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Olympiacos — Sparta Prague What is xG? | 2.5–0.8 | |
| Olympiacos not to lose | 91% | |
| Sparta Prague not to lose | 26% | |
| No draw | 84% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 50% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 50% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 63% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 37% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Olympiacos
- Olympiacos goals
- Sparta Prague goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
Form
- 11.10Panathinaikos1:0
- 20.09away · Levadiakos1:0
- 16.09Jagiellonia Białystok2:1
- 12.09OFI Crete0:1
- 05.09away · NFC Volos1:1
- 16.09away · Ararat Armenia4:1
- 19.03AZ Alkmaar0:4
- 12.03away · AZ Alkmaar1:2
- 18.12Aberdeen3:0
- 11.12away · Universitatea Craiova2:1
Head to head
No previous meetings in the data.
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3, Straight to the round of 16 | Beşiktaş | 1 | 1 | +3 | 3 |
| 4, Straight to the round of 16 | Sparta Prague | 1 | 1 | +3 | 3 |
| 5, Straight to the round of 16 | Union St.Gilloise | 1 | 1 | +3 | 3 |
| 11, Knockout play-off for the round of 16 | Lyon | 1 | 1 | +1 | 3 |
| 12, Knockout play-off for the round of 16 | Olympiacos | 1 | 1 | +1 | 3 |
| 13, Knockout play-off for the round of 16 | Torreense | 1 | 1 | +1 | 3 |
Europa League on the same day
- JuventusRennespreliminary6919121The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:03.1
- FerencvárosTorreensepreliminary5923181The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.9
- Union St.GilloiseHapoel Beer Shevapreliminary801471The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:03.5
- Dinamo ZagrebNEC Nijmegenpreliminary4826271The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.8
- Sturm GrazMarseillepreliminary3927351The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.8
- Lech PoznańSunderlandpreliminary5923181The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:03.0
- OFI CreteBayer Leverkusenpreliminary1420662The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:23.1
- Ararat ArmeniaAZ Alkmaarpreliminary2425522The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.9
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 74% will not happen in roughly 26 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →