UEFA Europa League, round 3 · Thursday, 22 October, MSK
Sturm Graz — Marseille
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 22 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Evenly matched: Sturm Graz 39%, Marseille 35%, draw 27%.
2.8 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.7).
Over 2.5 goals — 53%, both teams to score — 57%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Marseille are about 0.2 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Sturm Graz — Marseille What is xG? | 1.4–1.3 | |
| Sturm Graz not to lose | 65% | |
| Marseille not to lose | 61% | |
| No draw | 73% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 57% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 43% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 53% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 47% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
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- Handicap Sturm Graz
- Sturm Graz goals
- Marseille goals
- Corners and cards
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Form
- 10.10away · Austria Wien2:0
- 20.09away · Salzburg0:3
- 16.09Rennes0:0
- 13.09LASK2:1
- 30.08away · Rapid Wien1:3
- 11.10away · Troyes2:0
- 20.09Paris Saint-Germain1:2
- 17.09away · Beşiktaş1:4
- 11.09away · Rennes0:1
- 06.09Paris FC2:3
Head to head
No previous meetings in the data.
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19, Knockout play-off for the round of 16 | Hapoel Beer Sheva | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 20, Knockout play-off for the round of 16 | Sturm Graz | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 21, Knockout play-off for the round of 16 | Anderlecht | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 |
| 32 | Ararat Armenia | 1 | 0 | -3 | 0 |
| 33 | Marseille | 1 | 0 | -3 | 0 |
| 34 | Viktoria Plzeň | 1 | 0 | -3 | 0 |
Europa League on the same day
- JuventusRennespreliminary6919121The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:03.1
- FerencvárosTorreensepreliminary5923181The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.9
- Union St.GilloiseHapoel Beer Shevapreliminary801471The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:03.5
- Dinamo ZagrebNEC Nijmegenpreliminary4826271The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.8
- Lech PoznańSunderlandpreliminary5923181The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:03.0
- OFI CreteBayer Leverkusenpreliminary1420662The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:23.1
- Ararat ArmeniaAZ Alkmaarpreliminary2425522The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.9
- OlympiacosSparta Praguepreliminary741691The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:03.3
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 39% will not happen in roughly 61 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →