Austrian Bundesliga, round 8 · Saturday, 10 October, MSK · Generali Arena
Austria Wien — Sturm Graz
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0:2Came true
In short
Final score 0:2: the model's most likely outcome, Sturm Graz to win (40%), came true.
Sturm Graz are slightly stronger: 40% against 30%, draw 30%.
2.5 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.8).
Over 2.5 goals — 47%, both teams to score — 54%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Sturm Graz are about 0.4 goals per match stronger.
Facts
- Last 5 meetings: Austria Wien 3 wins, Sturm Graz 1, 1 draw.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Austria Wien — Sturm Graz What is xG? | 1.2–1.4 | |
| Austria Wien not to lose | 60% | |
| Sturm Graz not to lose | 70% | |
| No draw | 70% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 54% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 46% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 47% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 53% |
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- Handicap Austria Wien
- Austria Wien goals
- Sturm Graz goals
- Corners and cards
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Form
- 19.09away · Grazer AK2:2
- 13.09Austria Lustenau2:1
- 02.09WSG Tirol0:1
- 30.08away · Salzburg1:4
- 16.08away · Hartberg2:0
- 20.09away · Salzburg0:3
- 16.09Rennes0:0
- 13.09LASK2:1
- 30.08away · Rapid Wien1:3
- 22.08Austria Lustenau1:1
Head to head
- 26.04.2026Sturm Graz — Austria Wien1:1
- 15.03.2026Austria Wien — Sturm Graz2:5
- 14.12.2025Austria Wien — Sturm Graz3:1
- 14.09.2025Sturm Graz — Austria Wien0:1
- 27.04.2025Sturm Graz — Austria Wien0:1
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3, Championship round | LASK | 8 | 5 | +10 | 16 |
| 4, Championship round | Sturm Graz | 8 | 4 | +1 | 14 |
| 5, Championship round | Ried | 8 | 3 | 0 | 11 |
| 9, Relegation round | WSG Tirol | 8 | 2 | -4 | 8 |
| 10, Relegation round | Austria Wien | 8 | 2 | -8 | 7 |
| 11, Relegation round | Altach | 8 | 2 | -4 | 6 |
Next matches
- AFC BournemouthSturm Graz15 October · Europa League791471The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:03.5
- RiedAustria Wien17 October · Austrian Bundesliga4629251The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.8
Austrian Bundesliga on the same day
- 2028512The most likely outcome did not happen: 20:0Final score 0:0. Model's score: 0:1.2.7
- 373033XThe most likely outcome did not happen: X1:2Final score 1:2. Model's score: 2:2.2.8
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 40% will not happen in roughly 60 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →