Austrian Bundesliga, round 8 · Saturday, 10 October, MSK · Stadion Graz-Liebenau
Grazer AK — Salzburg
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In short
Final score 0:0: the model's most likely outcome, Salzburg to win (51%), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 51% fails in about 49 matches out of 100 on average.
Salzburg are clear favourites: 51% against 20% for the opponent, draw 28%.
2.7 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.8).
Over 2.5 goals — 50%, both teams to score — 55%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Salzburg are about 0.8 goals per match stronger.
Facts
- Salzburg: unbeaten in 5.
- Last 4 meetings: Grazer AK 0 wins, Salzburg 2, 2 draws.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Grazer AK — Salzburg What is xG? | 1.0–1.6 | |
| Grazer AK not to lose | 49% | |
| Salzburg not to lose | 80% | |
| No draw | 72% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 55% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 45% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 50% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 50% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Grazer AK
- Grazer AK goals
- Salzburg goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
Form
- 19.09Austria Wien2:2
- 12.09away · Altach2:1
- 29.08Wolfsberger AC0:0
- 21.08away · Ried0:1
- 16.08away · Rapid Wien0:8
- 20.09Sturm Graz3:0
- 17.09away · Levski Sofia1:0
- 11.09away · Ried1:1
- 02.09Rapid Wien5:1
- 30.08Austria Wien4:1
Head to head
- 15.02.2026Grazer AK — Salzburg1:1
- 09.08.2025Salzburg — Grazer AK5:0
- 02.11.2024Salzburg — Grazer AK0:0
- 02.08.2024Grazer AK — Salzburg2:3
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1, Championship round | Rapid Wien | 8 | 7 | +16 | 21 |
| 2, Championship round | Salzburg | 8 | 5 | +14 | 18 |
| 3, Championship round | LASK | 8 | 5 | +10 | 16 |
| 6, Championship round | Hartberg | 8 | 3 | -2 | 11 |
| 7, Relegation round | Grazer AK | 8 | 2 | -10 | 9 |
| 8, Relegation round | Austria Lustenau | 8 | 2 | -4 | 8 |
Next matches
- SalzburgMilan15 October · Europa League2525502The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:32.9
- Sturm GrazGrazer AK18 October · Austrian Bundesliga6323141The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:02.8
Austrian Bundesliga on the same day
- 373033XThe most likely outcome did not happen: X1:2Final score 1:2. Model's score: 2:2.2.8
- 3030402The most likely outcome came true: 20:2Final score 0:2. Model's score: 1:2.2.5
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 51% will not happen in roughly 49 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →