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Austrian Bundesliga, round 8 · Saturday, 10 October, MSK · Generali Arena

Austria Wien — Sturm Graz

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Model prediction and result

0:2Came true
Austria Wien30%
Draw30%
Sturm Graz40%
Model estimate at MSK, the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 0:2: the model's most likely outcome, Sturm Graz to win (40%), came true.

Sturm Graz are slightly stronger: 40% against 30%, draw 30%.

2.5 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.8).

Over 2.5 goals — 47%, both teams to score — 54%.

Why

  • By the strength ratings Sturm Graz are about 0.4 goals per match stronger.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Austria Wien — Sturm Graz What is xG?1.2–1.4
Austria Wien not to lose60%
Sturm Graz not to lose70%
No draw70%
Both teams to score: yes54%
Both teams to score: no46%
Total over 2.547%
Total under 2.553%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Handicap Austria Wien
  • Austria Wien goals
  • Sturm Graz goals
  • Corners and cards
  • Full score grid
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Form

Austria Wien

  • 19.09away · Grazer AK2:2
  • 13.09Austria Lustenau2:1
  • 02.09WSG Tirol0:1
  • 30.08away · Salzburg1:4
  • 16.08away · Hartberg2:0

Sturm Graz

  • 20.09away · Salzburg0:3
  • 16.09Rennes0:0
  • 13.09LASK2:1
  • 30.08away · Rapid Wien1:3
  • 22.08Austria Lustenau1:1

Head to head

  • 26.04.2026Sturm Graz — Austria Wien1:1
  • 15.03.2026Austria Wien — Sturm Graz2:5
  • 14.12.2025Austria Wien — Sturm Graz3:1
  • 14.09.2025Sturm Graz — Austria Wien0:1
  • 27.04.2025Sturm Graz — Austria Wien0:1

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWDLGoals+/−Pts
3, Championship roundLASK851219–9+1016
4, Championship roundSturm Graz842210–9+114
5, Championship roundRied832313–13011
9, Relegation roundWSG Tirol822410–14-48
10, Relegation roundAustria Wien82157–15-87
11, Relegation roundAltach82068–12-46

Season 2026/27

Full table

Next matches

  • AFC BournemouthSturm Graz15 October · Europa League
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.1
  • RiedAustria Wien17 October · Austrian Bundesliga
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.7

Austrian Bundesliga on the same day

  • Grazer AKSalzburg
    2The most likely outcome did not happen: 2Final score 0:0. Model's score: 0:1.2.7
  • WSG TirolRied
    XThe most likely outcome did not happen: XFinal score 1:2. Model's score: 2:2.2.8

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 40% will not happen in roughly 60 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →