EFL Championship, round 13 · Saturday, 31 October, MSK
Burnley — Portsmouth
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 31 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Burnley are clear favourites: 49% against 23% for the opponent, draw 28%.
2.7 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.6).
Over 2.5 goals — 53%, both teams to score — 57%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Burnley are about 0.5 goals per match stronger.
Facts
- League table: Burnley — No. 21, 8 pts; Portsmouth — No. 20, 8 pts.
- Last 2 meetings: Burnley 1 win, Portsmouth 0, 1 draw.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Burnley — Portsmouth What is xG? | 1.6–1.1 | |
| Burnley not to lose | 77% | |
| Portsmouth not to lose | 51% | |
| No draw | 72% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 57% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 43% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 53% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 47% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Burnley
- Burnley goals
- Portsmouth goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 13.10Charlton Athletic2:2
- 10.10away · Watford4:0
- 19.09Derby County1:1
- 12.09away · Swansea City1:3
- 08.09away · Wrexham1:1
- 11.10away · Southampton0:1
- 19.09Blackburn Rovers2:2
- 12.09away · Charlton Athletic0:0
- 05.09Cardiff City2:0
- 01.09Derby County0:2
Head to head
- 01.02.2025Portsmouth — Burnley0:0
- 21.09.2024Burnley — Portsmouth2:1
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Norwich City | 9 | 3 | -2 | 9 |
| 20 | Portsmouth | 8 | 2 | -2 | 8 |
| 21 | Burnley | 10 | 1 | -4 | 8 |
| 22, Relegation | Watford | 10 | 2 | -11 | 8 |
Championship on the same day
- Lincoln CityBirmingham Citypreliminary3230382The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.5
- Norwich CityWatfordpreliminary6423131The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.9
- Stoke CityPreston North Endpreliminary4629251The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.7
- Bolton WanderersBristol Citypreliminary3228402The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.9
- MiddlesbroughCharlton Athleticpreliminary731891The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.9
- MillwallDerby Countypreliminary5426201The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.7
- SouthamptonQueens Park Rangerspreliminary5325211The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.9
- Swansea CityBlackburn Roverspreliminary5726161The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.5
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 49% will not happen in roughly 51 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →