EFL Championship, round 9 · Saturday, 10 October, MSK · Pride Park Stadium
Derby County — Wrexham
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1:1Missed
In short
Final score 1:1: the model's most likely outcome, Derby County to win (44%), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 44% fails in about 56 matches out of 100 on average.
Derby County are slightly stronger: 44% against 28%, draw 28%.
2.6 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.6).
Over 2.5 goals — 48%, both teams to score — 54%.
Why
- By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Derby County — Wrexham What is xG? | 1.4–1.1 | |
| Derby County not to lose | 72% | |
| Wrexham not to lose | 56% | |
| No draw | 72% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 54% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 46% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 48% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 52% |
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Form
- 19.09away · Burnley1:1
- 12.09Birmingham City1:2
- 09.09West Bromwich Albion0:1
- 05.09away · West Ham United0:3
- 01.09away · Portsmouth2:0
- 19.09Southampton2:1
- 11.09away · West Ham United0:6
- 08.09Burnley1:1
- 05.09away · Swansea City0:0
- 02.09away · Millwall3:0
Head to head
- 04.01.2026Derby County — Wrexham1:2
- 27.09.2025Wrexham — Derby County1:1
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Sheffield United | 9 | 3 | +1 | 12 |
| 16 | Wrexham | 10 | 2 | -4 | 11 |
| 17 | Lincoln City | 9 | 3 | -4 | 11 |
| 22, Relegation | Watford | 10 | 2 | -11 | 8 |
| 23, Relegation | Derby County | 9 | 1 | -7 | 6 |
| 24, Relegation | Preston North End | 10 | 1 | -12 | 4 |
Next matches
- WrexhamWest Bromwich Albion13 October · Championship4330271The most likely outcome did not happen: 11:2Final score 1:2. Model's score: 2:0.2.3
- Queens Park RangersDerby County14 October · Championship4529261The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.5
Championship on the same day
- 353134XThe most likely outcome came true: X1:1Final score 1:1. Model's score: 1:1, exactly right.2.2
- 4329281The most likely outcome came true: 12:1Final score 2:1. Model's score: 1:0.2.8
- 383032XThe most likely outcome did not happen: X0:1Final score 0:1. Model's score: 0:0.2.3
- 4728251The most likely outcome came true: 12:1Final score 2:1. Model's score: 1:0.2.8
- 4428281The most likely outcome did not happen: 11:2Final score 1:2. Model's score: 2:0.2.7
- 4627271The most likely outcome came true: 11:0Final score 1:0. Model's score: 1:0, exactly right.2.9
- 3129402The most likely outcome came true: 20:1Final score 0:1. Model's score: 0:1, exactly right.2.8
- 4230291The most likely outcome came true: 13:0Final score 3:0. Model's score: 1:0.2.5
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 44% will not happen in roughly 56 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →