EFL Championship, round 9 · Saturday, 10 October, MSK · Deepdale
Preston North End — Millwall
☆ Save matchModel prediction and result
0:1Came true
In short
Final score 0:1: the model's most likely outcome, Millwall to win (40%), came true.
Millwall are slightly stronger: 40% against 31%, draw 29%.
2.8 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.6).
Over 2.5 goals — 53%, both teams to score — 59%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Millwall are about 0.3 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Preston North End — Millwall What is xG? | 1.3–1.5 | |
| Preston North End not to lose | 60% | |
| Millwall not to lose | 69% | |
| No draw | 71% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 59% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 41% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 53% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 47% |
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Form
- 19.09away · Queens Park Rangers2:2
- 12.09Lincoln City0:1
- 08.09away · Watford1:2
- 05.09Blackburn Rovers2:1
- 01.09Bristol City1:3
- 19.09West Ham United2:2
- 15.09away · Middlesbrough2:2
- 12.09away · Blackburn Rovers1:3
- 08.09Newcastle United0:1
- 05.09Bolton Wanderers4:0
Head to head
- 28.02.2026Preston North End — Millwall0:2
- 08.11.2025Millwall — Preston North End1:1
- 18.02.2025Preston North End — Millwall1:1
- 28.09.2024Millwall — Preston North End3:1
- 27.01.2024Millwall — Preston North End1:1
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Wolverhampton Wanderers | 9 | 4 | +2 | 14 |
| 11 | Millwall | 10 | 4 | 0 | 14 |
| 12 | Bristol City | 10 | 4 | -2 | 14 |
| 23, Relegation | Derby County | 9 | 1 | -7 | 6 |
| 24, Relegation | Preston North End | 10 | 1 | -12 | 4 |
Next matches
- MillwallSwansea City13 October · Championship4927241The most likely outcome did not happen: 10:1Final score 0:1. Model's score: 2:1.2.7
- Birmingham CityPreston North End13 October · Championship6024161The most likely outcome came true: 14:0Final score 4:0. Model's score: 2:0.2.8
Championship on the same day
- 353134XThe most likely outcome came true: X1:1Final score 1:1. Model's score: 1:1, exactly right.2.2
- 4329281The most likely outcome came true: 12:1Final score 2:1. Model's score: 1:0.2.8
- 383032XThe most likely outcome did not happen: X0:1Final score 0:1. Model's score: 0:0.2.3
- 4728251The most likely outcome came true: 12:1Final score 2:1. Model's score: 1:0.2.8
- 4428281The most likely outcome did not happen: 11:2Final score 1:2. Model's score: 2:0.2.7
- 4428281The most likely outcome did not happen: 11:1Final score 1:1. Model's score: 2:0.2.6
- 4627271The most likely outcome came true: 11:0Final score 1:0. Model's score: 1:0, exactly right.2.9
- 4230291The most likely outcome came true: 13:0Final score 3:0. Model's score: 1:0.2.5
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 40% will not happen in roughly 60 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →