EFL Championship, round 9 · Saturday, 10 October, MSK · The Hawthorns
West Bromwich Albion — Birmingham City
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0:1Missed
In short
Final score 0:1: the model's most likely outcome, a draw (30%), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 30% fails in about 70 matches out of 100 on average.
Evenly matched: West Bromwich Albion 38%, Birmingham City 32%, draw 30%.
2.3 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.6).
Over 2.5 goals — 41%, both teams to score — 49%.
Why
- By the strength ratings West Bromwich Albion are about 0.3 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: West Bromwich Albion — Birmingham City What is xG? | 1.2–1.1 | |
| West Bromwich Albion not to lose | 68% | |
| Birmingham City not to lose | 62% | |
| No draw | 70% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 49% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 51% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 41% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 59% |
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Form
- 20.09away · Wolverhampton Wanderers0:1
- 12.09Queens Park Rangers1:1
- 09.09away · Derby County1:0
- 05.09Watford1:0
- 02.09Charlton Athletic1:1
- 19.09Middlesbrough2:2
- 12.09away · Derby County2:1
- 09.09away · Norwich City1:2
- 06.09Wolverhampton Wanderers2:2
- 01.09Southampton1:1
Head to head
- 10.02.2026Birmingham City — West Bromwich Albion0:0
- 26.11.2025West Bromwich Albion — Birmingham City1:1
- 03.02.2024West Bromwich Albion — Birmingham City1:0
- 06.10.2023Birmingham City — West Bromwich Albion3:1
- 10.02.2023Birmingham City — West Bromwich Albion2:0
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3, Promotion play-offs | Southampton | 9 | 5 | +10 | 17 |
| 4, Promotion play-offs | Birmingham City | 10 | 4 | +6 | 17 |
| 5, Promotion play-offs | West Bromwich Albion | 10 | 5 | +2 | 17 |
| 6, Promotion play-offs | West Ham United | 9 | 4 | +11 | 16 |
Next matches
- WrexhamWest Bromwich Albion13 October · Championship4330271The most likely outcome did not happen: 11:2Final score 1:2. Model's score: 2:0.2.3
- Birmingham CityPreston North End13 October · Championship6024161The most likely outcome came true: 14:0Final score 4:0. Model's score: 2:0.2.8
Championship on the same day
- 353134XThe most likely outcome came true: X1:1Final score 1:1. Model's score: 1:1, exactly right.2.2
- 4329281The most likely outcome came true: 12:1Final score 2:1. Model's score: 1:0.2.8
- 4728251The most likely outcome came true: 12:1Final score 2:1. Model's score: 1:0.2.8
- 4428281The most likely outcome did not happen: 11:2Final score 1:2. Model's score: 2:0.2.7
- 4428281The most likely outcome did not happen: 11:1Final score 1:1. Model's score: 2:0.2.6
- 4627271The most likely outcome came true: 11:0Final score 1:0. Model's score: 1:0, exactly right.2.9
- 3129402The most likely outcome came true: 20:1Final score 0:1. Model's score: 0:1, exactly right.2.8
- 4230291The most likely outcome came true: 13:0Final score 3:0. Model's score: 1:0.2.5
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 38% will not happen in roughly 62 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →