UEFA Europa League, round 3 · Thursday, 22 October, MSK
Ferencváros — Torreense
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 22 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Ferencváros are clear favourites: 59% against 18% for the opponent, draw 23%.
2.9 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.7).
Over 2.5 goals — 56%, both teams to score — 54%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Ferencváros are about 0.4 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Ferencváros — Torreense What is xG? | 1.9–1.0 | |
| Ferencváros not to lose | 82% | |
| Torreense not to lose | 41% | |
| No draw | 77% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 54% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 46% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 56% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 44% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Ferencváros
- Ferencváros goals
- Torreense goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
Form
- 17.09away · Celtic3:1
- 18.03away · Braga0:4
- 12.03Braga2:0
- 26.02Ludogorets Razgrad2:0
- 19.02away · Ludogorets Razgrad1:2
- 17.09away · Lillestrøm2:1
- 24.05away · Sporting CP2:1
- 23.04AD Fafe2:0
- 04.02away · AD Fafe1:1
- 11.01União de Leiria3:1
Head to head
No previous meetings in the data.
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5, Straight to the round of 16 | Union St.Gilloise | 1 | 1 | +3 | 3 |
| 6, Straight to the round of 16 | Ferencváros | 1 | 1 | +2 | 3 |
| 7, Straight to the round of 16 | Bayer Leverkusen | 1 | 1 | +2 | 3 |
| 12, Knockout play-off for the round of 16 | Olympiacos | 1 | 1 | +1 | 3 |
| 13, Knockout play-off for the round of 16 | Torreense | 1 | 1 | +1 | 3 |
| 14, Knockout play-off for the round of 16 | Omonia Nicosia | 1 | 1 | +1 | 3 |
Europa League on the same day
- JuventusRennespreliminary6919121The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:03.1
- Union St.GilloiseHapoel Beer Shevapreliminary801471The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:03.5
- Dinamo ZagrebNEC Nijmegenpreliminary4826271The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.8
- Sturm GrazMarseillepreliminary3927351The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.8
- Lech PoznańSunderlandpreliminary5923181The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:03.0
- OFI CreteBayer Leverkusenpreliminary1420662The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:23.1
- Ararat ArmeniaAZ Alkmaarpreliminary2425522The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.9
- OlympiacosSparta Praguepreliminary741691The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:03.3
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 59% will not happen in roughly 41 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →