Eredivisie (Netherlands), round 8 · Saturday, 10 October, MSK · Fortuna Sittard Stadion
Fortuna Sittard — FC Twente
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In short
Final score 1:1: the model's most likely outcome, FC Twente to win (55%), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 55% fails in about 45 matches out of 100 on average.
FC Twente are clear favourites: 55% against 18% for the opponent, draw 27%.
3.0 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (3.3).
Over 2.5 goals — 57%, both teams to score — 59%.
Why
- By the strength ratings FC Twente are about 1.0 goals per match stronger.
Facts
- FC Twente: 3 wins in a row.
- Last 5 meetings: Fortuna Sittard 0 wins, FC Twente 4, 1 draw.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Fortuna Sittard — FC Twente What is xG? | 1.1–1.9 | |
| Fortuna Sittard not to lose | 45% | |
| FC Twente not to lose | 82% | |
| No draw | 73% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 59% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 41% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 57% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 43% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Fortuna Sittard
- Fortuna Sittard goals
- FC Twente goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
Form
- 19.09away · Willem II1:0
- 12.09Ajax1:5
- 06.09away · ADO Den Haag3:2
- 28.08away · FC Groningen3:2
- 22.08AZ Alkmaar0:2
- 20.09PSV Eindhoven3:2
- 12.09ADO Den Haag2:0
- 09.09Telstar1:0
- 06.09away · FC Groningen2:2
- 30.08away · Cambuur4:1
Head to head
- 21.03.2026Fortuna Sittard — FC Twente1:2
- 26.09.2025FC Twente — Fortuna Sittard3:2
- 05.04.2025FC Twente — Fortuna Sittard1:1
- 23.11.2024Fortuna Sittard — FC Twente1:2
- 06.04.2024FC Twente — Fortuna Sittard2:0
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3, Europa League or Conference League | AZ Alkmaar | 8 | 6 | +10 | 19 |
| 4 | FC Twente | 8 | 5 | +8 | 17 |
| 5 | Ajax | 8 | 4 | +12 | 15 |
| 6 | FC Groningen | 8 | 4 | +6 | 14 |
| 7 | Fortuna Sittard | 8 | 4 | -1 | 14 |
| 8 | Go Ahead Eagles | 8 | 2 | +2 | 11 |
Next matches
- FC TwenteThun15 October · Conference League7317101The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 4:03.3
- NEC NijmegenFortuna Sittard18 October · Eredivisie6222161The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:03.4
Eredivisie on the same day
- 5226221The most likely outcome did not happen: 13:3Final score 3:3. Model's score: 2:1.3.6
- 5624201The most likely outcome came true: 12:0Final score 2:0. Model's score: 3:1.3.3
- 6321161The most likely outcome did not happen: 11:1Final score 1:1. Model's score: 2:1.3.8
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 55% will not happen in roughly 45 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →