Eredivisie (Netherlands), round 8 · Saturday, 10 October, MSK · Stadion Feijenoord
Feyenoord — AZ Alkmaar
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2:0Came true
In short
Final score 2:0: the model's most likely outcome, Feyenoord to win (56%), came true.
Feyenoord are clear favourites: 56% against 20% for the opponent, draw 24%.
3.3 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (3.3).
Over 2.5 goals — 65%, both teams to score — 65%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Feyenoord are about 0.6 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Feyenoord — AZ Alkmaar What is xG? | 2.1–1.3 | |
| Feyenoord not to lose | 80% | |
| AZ Alkmaar not to lose | 44% | |
| No draw | 76% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 65% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 35% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 65% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 35% |
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- Feyenoord goals
- AZ Alkmaar goals
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Form
- 20.09FC Utrecht5:0
- 13.09away · PEC Zwolle7:0
- 09.09away · Barcelona1:5
- 05.09away · NEC Nijmegen3:1
- 30.08ADO Den Haag2:2
- 20.09Telstar1:0
- 16.09away · Sunderland0:1
- 11.09Willem II1:1
- 06.09away · SC Heerenveen3:2
- 29.08Go Ahead Eagles5:2
Head to head
- 10.05.2026Feyenoord — AZ Alkmaar1:1
- 21.09.2025AZ Alkmaar — Feyenoord3:3
- 05.04.2025AZ Alkmaar — Feyenoord0:1
- 02.11.2024Feyenoord — AZ Alkmaar3:2
- 04.02.2024AZ Alkmaar — Feyenoord0:1
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1, Champions League | Feyenoord | 8 | 6 | +20 | 20 |
| 2, Champions League qualifying | PSV Eindhoven | 8 | 6 | +16 | 19 |
| 3, Europa League or Conference League | AZ Alkmaar | 8 | 6 | +10 | 19 |
| 4 | FC Twente | 8 | 5 | +8 | 17 |
Next matches
- FeyenoordComo14 October · Champions League3727372The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:12.8
- AZ AlkmaarHapoel Beer Sheva15 October · Europa League6720131The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:03.1
Eredivisie on the same day
- 5226221The most likely outcome did not happen: 13:3Final score 3:3. Model's score: 2:1.3.6
- 1827552The most likely outcome did not happen: 21:1Final score 1:1. Model's score: 0:2.3.0
- 6321161The most likely outcome did not happen: 11:1Final score 1:1. Model's score: 2:1.3.8
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 56% will not happen in roughly 44 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →