Argentine Liga Profesional · Saturday, 3 October, MSK · Estadio Bautista Gargantini
Independiente Rivadavia — Gimnasia LP
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In short
Final score 1:1: the model's most likely outcome, Independiente Rivadavia to win (48%), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 48% fails in about 52 matches out of 100 on average.
Independiente Rivadavia are clear favourites: 48% against 24% for the opponent, draw 28%.
The model expects plenty of goals: 2.5 in total, against a competition average of 2.1.
Over 2.5 goals — 44%, both teams to score — 49%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Independiente Rivadavia are about 0.2 goals per match stronger.
Facts
- Gimnasia LP: unbeaten in 4.
- Last 2 meetings: Independiente Rivadavia 2 wins, Gimnasia LP 0.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Independiente Rivadavia — Gimnasia LP What is xG? | 1.5–1.0 | |
| Independiente Rivadavia not to lose | 76% | |
| Gimnasia LP not to lose | 52% | |
| No draw | 72% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 49% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 51% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 44% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 56% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Independiente Rivadavia
- Independiente Rivadavia goals
- Gimnasia LP goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
Form
- 22.09away · Barracas Central1:0
- 17.09Atlético Tucumán1:1
- 12.09Aldosivi4:3
- 07.09away · River Plate1:3
- 31.08Racing Club3:1
- 19.09Banfield2:2
- 13.09away · Argentinos Juniors1:1
- 05.09Tigre2:1
- 29.08away · Rosario Central2:1
- 22.08Gimnasia Mendoza2:3
Head to head
- 15.03.2026Gimnasia LP — Independiente Rivadavia2:3
- 19.07.2024Independiente Rivadavia — Gimnasia LP1:0
Next matches
- Gimnasia LPAtlético Tucumán10 October · Liga Profesional4630231The most likely outcome did not happen: 11:1Final score 1:1. Model's score: 1:0.2.2
- Rosario CentralIndependiente Rivadavia11 October · Liga Profesional4828241The most likely outcome came true: 15:0Final score 5:0. Model's score: 1:0.2.3
Liga Profesional on the same day
- 3532331The most likely outcome did not happen: 11:4Final score 1:4. Model's score: 1:0.2.0
- 6224141The most likely outcome came true: 13:0Final score 3:0. Model's score: 1:0.2.5
- 4631231The most likely outcome came true: 13:0Final score 3:0. Model's score: 1:0.2.1
- 3633311The most likely outcome did not happen: 10:0Final score 0:0. Model's score: 1:0.2.0
- 4831221The most likely outcome did not happen: 12:3Final score 2:3. Model's score: 1:0.2.1
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 48% will not happen in roughly 52 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →