Argentine Liga Profesional · Sunday, 11 October, MSK · Estadio Gigante de Arroyito
Rosario Central — Independiente Rivadavia
☆ Save matchModel prediction and result
5:0Came true
In short
Final score 5:0: the model's most likely outcome, Rosario Central to win (48%), came true.
Rosario Central are clear favourites: 48% against 24% for the opponent, draw 28%.
2.3 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.1).
Over 2.5 goals — 41%, both teams to score — 48%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Rosario Central are about 0.4 goals per match stronger.
Facts
- Rosario Central: unbeaten in 4; Independiente Rivadavia: unbeaten in 4.
- Last 2 meetings: Rosario Central 0 wins, Independiente Rivadavia 1, 1 draw.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Rosario Central — Independiente Rivadavia What is xG? | 1.4–0.9 | |
| Rosario Central not to lose | 76% | |
| Independiente Rivadavia not to lose | 52% | |
| No draw | 72% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 48% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 52% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 41% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 59% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Rosario Central
- Rosario Central goals
- Independiente Rivadavia goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 06.10away · Banfield1:1
- 20.09Argentinos Juniors1:0
- 13.09away · Tigre1:0
- 06.09Newell's Old Boys1:1
- 29.08Gimnasia LP1:2
- 03.10Gimnasia LP1:1
- 22.09away · Barracas Central1:0
- 17.09Atlético Tucumán1:1
- 12.09Aldosivi4:3
- 07.09away · River Plate1:3
Head to head
- 23.03.2026Independiente Rivadavia — Rosario Central2:0
- 05.11.2024Independiente Rivadavia — Rosario Central1:1
Next matches
- Independiente RivadaviaTigre17 October · Liga Profesional4331261The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.1
- Atlético TucumánRosario Central18 October · Liga Profesional3031392The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:12.1
Liga Profesional on the same day
- 5726171The most likely outcome did not happen: 11:2Final score 1:2. Model's score: 2:0.2.4
- 771661The most likely outcome came true: 11:0Final score 1:0. Model's score: 2:1.2.5
- 413326XThe most likely outcome did not happen: X1:0Final score 1:0. Model's score: 0:0.1.6
- 343135XThe most likely outcome came true: X1:1Final score 1:1. Model's score: 1:1, exactly right.1.9
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 48% will not happen in roughly 52 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →