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UEFA Nations League, round 3, League B, group 3 · Thursday, 1 October, MSK · Nagyerdei Stadion

Israel — Kosovo

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Model prediction and result

0:0Missed
Israel25%
Draw26%
Kosovo49%
Model estimate at MSK, the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 0:0: the model's most likely outcome, Kosovo to win (49%), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 49% fails in about 51 matches out of 100 on average.

Kosovo are clear favourites: 49% against 25% for the opponent, draw 26%.

The model expects plenty of goals: 2.8 in total, against a competition average of 2.4.

Over 2.5 goals — 54%, both teams to score — 57%.

Why

  • National-team Elo: Israel 1607, Kosovo 1714 — Kosovo rated higher.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Israel — Kosovo What is xG?1.1–1.7
Israel not to lose51%
Kosovo not to lose75%
No draw74%
Both teams to score: yes57%
Both teams to score: no43%
Total over 2.554%
Total under 2.546%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Handicap Israel
  • Israel goals
  • Kosovo goals
  • Corners and cards
  • Full score grid
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Form

Israel

  • 27.09Ireland0:3
  • 24.09away · Austria1:3
  • 03.06away · Albania1:0
  • 26.03away · Georgia2:2
  • 16.11Moldova4:1

Kosovo

  • 27.09away · Austria1:3
  • 24.09Ireland1:0
  • 07.06Andorra3:0
  • 31.05away · Czechia1:2
  • 31.03Turkiye0:1

Head to head

  • 12.11.2023Kosovo — Israel1:0
  • 25.03.2023Israel — Kosovo1:1

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWDLGoals+/−Pts
1, Promotion to the league aboveAustria42209–5+48
2, Promotion play-offsIreland41216–4+25
3Kosovo41213–4-15
4, Relegation play-offIsrael40222–7-52

Season 2026/27

Full table

Next matches

  • KosovoAustria4 October · UEFA Nations League
    2The most likely outcome did not happen: 2Final score 1:1. Model's score: 1:2.2.8
  • IrelandIsrael4 October · UEFA Nations League
    1The most likely outcome did not happen: 1Final score 1:1. Model's score: 2:1.2.6

UEFA Nations League on the same day

  • AzerbaijanLiechtenstein
    1The most likely outcome did not happen: 1Final score 0:0. Model's score: 2:0.2.8
  • GermanySerbia
    1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 2:0. Model's score: 2:0, exactly right.3.6
  • GreeceNetherlands
    2The most likely outcome did not happen: 2Final score 2:2. Model's score: 0:1.2.6
  • DenmarkPortugal
    2The most likely outcome came true: 2Final score 2:4. Model's score: 1:2.2.7
  • WalesNorway
    2The most likely outcome did not happen: 2Final score 2:1. Model's score: 0:2.2.8
  • IrelandAustria
    2The most likely outcome did not happen: 2Final score 2:2. Model's score: 0:1.2.4
  • MaltaGibraltar
    1The most likely outcome did not happen: 1Final score 1:1. Model's score: 2:0.2.7

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 49% will not happen in roughly 51 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →