PremiumTelegram
EN
Sections

UEFA Nations League, round 4, League C, group 3 · Tuesday, 6 October, MSK · Astana Arena

Kazakhstan — Faroe Islands

☆ Save match

Model prediction and result

2:2Came true
Kazakhstan38%
Draw31%
Faroe Islands31%
Model estimate at MSK, the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 2:2: the model's most likely outcome, a draw (31%), came true.

Evenly matched: Kazakhstan 38%, Faroe Islands 31%, draw 31%.

2.1 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.4).

Over 2.5 goals — 36%, both teams to score — 43%.

Why

  • National-team Elo: Kazakhstan 1393, Faroe Islands 1392 — the teams are almost level on rating.

Facts

  • Kazakhstan: winless in 5; Faroe Islands: unbeaten in 4.
  • Last 2 meetings: Kazakhstan 0 wins, Faroe Islands 1, 1 draw.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Kazakhstan — Faroe Islands What is xG?1.1–1.0
Kazakhstan not to lose69%
Faroe Islands not to lose62%
No draw69%
Both teams to score: yes43%
Both teams to score: no57%
Total over 2.536%
Total under 2.564%

183 more model lines in Premium

All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Handicap Kazakhstan
  • Kazakhstan goals
  • Faroe Islands goals
  • Corners and cards
  • Full score grid
Get Premiumfrom $5.99 a month

Form

Kazakhstan

  • 02.10Moldova1:2
  • 29.09away · Slovakia1:2
  • 26.09away · Faroe Islands1:1
  • 09.06away · Hungary1:3
  • 06.06away · Armenia1:1

Faroe Islands

  • 02.10Slovakia1:1
  • 29.09away · Moldova1:1
  • 26.09Kazakhstan1:1
  • 09.06away · Latvia1:0
  • 06.06away · Estonia0:1

Head to head

  • 26.09.2026Faroe Islands — Kazakhstan1:1
  • 18.11.2025Faroe Islands — Kazakhstan1:0

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWDLGoals+/−Pts
1, Promotion to the league aboveSlovakia43109–2+710
2, Promotion play-offsFaroe Islands40405–504
3Moldova41123–8-54
4Kazakhstan40225–7-22

Season 2026/27

Full table

UEFA Nations League on the same day

  • CroatiaSpain
    2The most likely outcome came true: 2Final score 1:2. Model's score: 0:3.3.2
  • EnglandCzechia
    1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 3:0. Model's score: 2:0.3.3
  • ScotlandSlovenia
    1The most likely outcome did not happen: 1Final score 1:2. Model's score: 1:0.2.2
  • SwitzerlandNorth Macedonia
    1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 3:0. Model's score: 3:1.3.3
  • AlbaniaSan Marino
    1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 2:1. Model's score: 2:0.3.4
  • BelarusFinland
    2The most likely outcome did not happen: 2Final score 1:0. Model's score: 1:2.2.3
  • MoldovaSlovakia
    2The most likely outcome came true: 2Final score 0:4. Model's score: 0:2.2.6
  • EstoniaIceland
    2The most likely outcome did not happen: 2Final score 0:0. Model's score: 0:2.2.6

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 38% will not happen in roughly 62 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →